Evening all, got a random query which I don't know if its even possible to solve. I'm not great at explaining so bear with me and i'll do my best (These examples aint what I want to solve this for but i'll explain in sports terms to make it clearer.
If I have a 2 game MLB series, Team A v Team B, and I have an expected Win% for each team as:
Game 1 - Team A 60%, Team B 40%
Game 2 - Team A 25%, Team B 75%
Knowing this information I can obviously work out all the probabilities in terms of the series outcome:
Team A wins both games = .6*.25 = 15%
Team A wins 1 game = (.6*.75) + (.4*.25) = 55%
Team A wins no games = .4*.75 = 30%
So technically I could estimate fair prices based on Team A winning 0,1 or 2 games.
Thats the simple stuff, what I want is to do though is the same but on a massive scale, using NFL for example, if I had each games estimated winning percentages (estimated, expected, guessed, whatever) how could I work out the chance of the team winning 1,2,3,4,5....14,15,16 games etc etc
I know using the NFL example there are 65536 different combinations of results and technically I could sit here and calculate them all, but that would be a total ballache if i'm honest and i'm hoping there may be a quick way around it, can anyone help?
I used the NFL as an example because thats a 16 game season and its close to the number I actually want.
Can anyone think of any quick way around this before I sit and smash 65k combinations of numbers in excel?
Cheers guys and I hope I got my point across ok
(I tried various forum and google searches and to be honest I didnt even really know where to start
)
If I have a 2 game MLB series, Team A v Team B, and I have an expected Win% for each team as:
Game 1 - Team A 60%, Team B 40%
Game 2 - Team A 25%, Team B 75%
Knowing this information I can obviously work out all the probabilities in terms of the series outcome:
Team A wins both games = .6*.25 = 15%
Team A wins 1 game = (.6*.75) + (.4*.25) = 55%
Team A wins no games = .4*.75 = 30%
So technically I could estimate fair prices based on Team A winning 0,1 or 2 games.
Thats the simple stuff, what I want is to do though is the same but on a massive scale, using NFL for example, if I had each games estimated winning percentages (estimated, expected, guessed, whatever) how could I work out the chance of the team winning 1,2,3,4,5....14,15,16 games etc etc
I know using the NFL example there are 65536 different combinations of results and technically I could sit here and calculate them all, but that would be a total ballache if i'm honest and i'm hoping there may be a quick way around it, can anyone help?
I used the NFL as an example because thats a 16 game season and its close to the number I actually want.
Can anyone think of any quick way around this before I sit and smash 65k combinations of numbers in excel?
Cheers guys and I hope I got my point across ok
(I tried various forum and google searches and to be honest I didnt even really know where to start
)
