Edge estimate

[MasterP10]

I came across this article and wanted to know if anyone agrees or disagrees with the estimated edge?


If you make the fair line on a game -205/+205 and they have the game -192/+180 (no vig = 184), then you believe there is "value" in the -192. The implied WP of -192 is 65.75% and at -205, you believe the team has a 67.21% chance of winning so your edge is 1.46%.

[rsigley]

win prob * decimal odds -1

[WONOFTHEGUYS]

yes

[buby74]

Your edge is 2.22% 67.21/65.75 - 1

[tukkk]

they have the game -192/+180 (no vig = 184), then you believe there is "value" in the -192. The implied WP of -192 is 65.75%

i wonder why everybody loses when they are so ignorant to even double-check the basic numbers

[LT Profits]

i wonder why everybody loses when they are so ignorant to even double-check the basic numbers

Where is the mistake, looks OK to me? Don't you need to use the price you actually got rather than the no-vig line when calculating edge?

[tukkk]

Where is the mistake, looks OK to me? Don't you need to use the price you actually got rather than the no-vig line when calculating edge?

there is no mistake with the info in this thread, both ways, either with dec. odds or implied % result is the same (2.23%)

i just thought of the "article" and accidently quoted only part of what i wanted, my bad
i didnt pay attention, it looks like my critique is towards OP, sorry

[peacebyinches]

+2 points for tukkk

ty again

[MasterP10]

I came up with 2.22%

I think the article is wrong.

[uva3021]

your edge is your p - implied p, and you should only make a wager when p*decimal > 1, or if p>implied p

regardless it doesn't matter, your stake is (p-implied p)/(1-implied p), so calculating the edge is meaningless