Originally Posted by
illfuuptn
Perhaps you should step back and realize that I'm not a blind square newb when it comes to this. I understand that the edge to be obtained is not very large. I understand that not every factor has an effect on probability, but many do. When I first came to SBR and asked questions in the tank, people told me I'd have to do my own work and come up with my own strategies. I still take all the help I can get when it comes to model building or new ideas, but I also think for myself. There's too many robots in the tank that simply abide by what a professional handicapper does or says and assume all other ideas to be worthless. You're stubborn to the point that you'll reject an outside idea faster than you'll question an existing professional standard. I think many of you are in for a rude awakening in the coming years when innovation and open-mindedness will be essential to keep out of the red. I don't have a model for any sport right now. I'm looking to build some. But while I will include standard stats, I will also look into the things that are more difficult(yet possible) to quantify. This past NFL postseason I bet on the Packers in every single round because I knew that they were undervalued EVERY SINGLE ROUND. I did this without following sharp action or looking up stats. I did this because I knew that team, I knew the seemingly insignificant reasons why they were undervalued, I knew how and why they weren't perceived to be as good as they were, and I knew why the markets would be set like they were. The Packers closed as smaller underdogs or bigger favorites than they opened every time. All the sharps in the world and I certainly had something in common with regard those games. I guess I just got lucky. I guess you just can't quantify "meaningless shit."