Baseball Totals

[freshguy222]

Hey guys!
Love the Action referred me to this section.
I have a question about baseball totals, I made some picks in the past and theyve done well. The special thing about them is that my picks are hardly ever totally off, so I basically never have Under 7 when the end result is 11. My question to you guys is, could i just track by which margin my games are winning and by which margin they are losing and calculate the average run differential and therewith calculate at which percentage they would hit (juice of -105)? So basically if f.e. the average run differential was 2, could i calculate the estimated %?
Also, does it matter whether the totals are more overs or unders? Because for overs there is no limit and that could I guess shade the result if you have Over 10 and the end result is 15-13, because with Under 7 you might soemtimes get a 2-1 or so, but the margin could be smaller.

LTA already told me that value was measured against the closing number, however I think that the closing lines should be real close to real number over a large sample size of course and therefore a 2 run differential on average would be 2 runs of value.
Any help would be appreciated.

[mathdotcom]

The special thing about them is that my picks are hardly ever totally off

Wow!

Then if you like U7 -110, you should bet U9 -230 and you'd never lose!

[freshguy222]

no, ill never lay that kind of juice, but when the picks are winners they are usually way under or way over specially FF, but i cannot back that up with numbers yet.

[solring]

but i cannot back that up with numbers yet.

'Nuff said...

[freshguy222]

'Nuff said...

its not about proving anything, i wont provide the picks anyway but id like to know if it would work that way

[hutennis]

no, ill never lay that kind of juice,.

What kind of juice?
Please explain

[freshguy222]

-230 to buy up a total

[hutennis]

I understand, but how much juice is there really?

I would say just as much as in -105 bet. Is not it?

[freshguy222]

so you say -230 is the same as -105?

[HUY]

so you say -230 is the same as -105?

Yes.

[LT Profits]

It depends on the lineset. A line of -230/+190 actually has LESS hold (4.01%) than a line of -110/-110 (4.55%). But it is irrelevant because freshguy was actually referring to the odds themselves and not really the juice.

[evo34]

Back to the original question: yes, measuring your avg. margin of victory is useful for evaluating whether you will have future success with a strategy. Obviously, once your sample gets huge, you'll have enough that measuring binary outcomes will be fine. Until then, you should definitely be looking at margin of victory for your bets whenever possible and/or worth the time involved in tracking it.

[hutennis]

But it is irrelevant because freshguy was actually referring to the odds themselves and not really the juice.

Of course. That and his next question

so you say -230 is the same as -105?

makes his methodology/approach/model or whatever it's called a little bit of a suspect.
Would not you say?

[freshguy222]

i know that -230 and -105 is a huge difference, i just didnt get your point

[hutennis]

My point is that -230 and -105 are essentially the same thing and if such an elementary point apparently is a source of confusion for you, how do you plan to make sure you are not falling pray for much more complicated and hard to recognize errors?

[HUY]

i know that -230 and -105 is a huge difference, i just didnt get your point

There is no difference really, your expected loss is the same.