questions on handicapping (Think Tank)

ico2525 · 10-03-08, 05:03 PM

Hey, well there are so many different approaches. If you're comfortable following lines (http://www.sbrodds.com/) you can definitely make a profit by betting against movement.

If you bet against the 5 most moved NFL lines every Sunday for example, you'll make a profit. It's not an extremely profitable approach, but it's logically efficient. If a team is favored by -7.5 and the line moves to -9.5, take the +9.5.

Like I said, you're not going to make millions doing this, but find a book with sharp lines and a nice bonus, and you'll make money. You'll take the bonus and make a profit from some winnings.

smitch124 · 10-03-08, 05:32 PM

Treat the forum, Handicappers Think Tank, like a book on handicapping and read it, you'll learn alot (including some bad words).

Arrrby2 · 10-03-08, 07:08 PM

haha thanks, any recommendation on books, and any approach you guys would suggest on taking?, i know how to do most of what was mentioned above and I do pay attention to line movements, market movements, etc, etc

Peep · 10-03-08, 08:02 PM

I think who ever has the best number wins.

So I would look for ways to get a better number than the book and then make a bet.

Your best chances of doing this lie in minor sports and prop offerings IMO. Line and ML line numbers in major sports are deadly accurate.

Arrrby2 · 10-04-08, 08:45 AM

i'm just trying to figure out, where to begin when it comes to handicapping more then anything.. not too worried about figuring out "gimicks" to potentially win a few bets... although i understand your points, the main purpose i had in starting this thread was to maybe get a slightly better insight and or a helping hand guiding me towards figuring out how to come up with a winning number according to whatever statistics i use...

thanks for the replies though so far, much appreciated

Peep · 10-04-08, 09:45 AM

helping hand guiding me towards figuring out how to come up with a winning number according to whatever statistics i use...

Why I would do is...

Look for situations where your statistics say one side is a winning bet over time. Monitor these going forward.
See if they win on paper.
If they do, start betting with caution.
If you win, keep going.
If you lose, start again.
If you lose, back to your statistics.

Arrrby2 · 10-04-08, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by Peep

Why I would do is...

Look for situations where your statistics say one side is a winning bet over time. Monitor these going forward.
See if they win on paper.
If they do, start betting with caution.
If you win, keep going.
If you lose, start again.
If you lose, back to your statistics.

so this brings us back to my question of... the who what when where why and how, do you come up with the initial "winning number" to test and play with...

maybe recommendations on which statistics and probability books i should read, where to obtain the stats and how to throw those stats into what formula to get the initial number etc.. is what i'm mainly concerned with... thanks for any help you or anyone else can give thanks...

Art Vandeleigh · 10-04-08, 05:01 PM

The Think Tank FAQ section should get you pointed in the right direction.

Of course, the most frequently asked question about the Think Tank Frequently Asked Questions section is when will the Think Tank Frequently Asked Questions section emerge into the light of day.

Say that 3 times fast.

Arrrby2 · 10-04-08, 05:05 PM

ah nice, i'll look at that thanks

Profesionalac · 10-05-08, 03:52 PM

good suggestion in this thread,i totaly agree with it

jtuck · 10-05-08, 09:39 PM

Here's my method for baseball, i don't have nearly the time to dedicate to capping during football and basketball season that I do baseball season but my approach would be the same. Sounds pretty simple but it takes a while to get a feel for what approach works the best for you.

Before the lines come out i look at the matchups for the next day on covers. I go over some of the stats that i feel are most important to the game. Then i look at recent trends for the teams, but to a lesser extent than the stats. Then i'll set a rough line on what the game should be in my opinion. I had to start capping the games and not betting them for a while until I got a good feel for which stats are important (like WHIP) and which ones aren't. (like ERA). Eventually the lines i was setting started getting consistently close to what the books were posting and i started betting the edges. Key here is to bet the lines when they open, as ideally the lines will almost always get worse on the team you are betting on. By the time the game goes off your edges will be much harder to find. Just like anything the more you work at it the better you will be. Gotta be dedicated to it to succeed long term at this.

Arrrby2 · 10-06-08, 11:22 AM

hm.. where can i go about looking up the stats that you obtained?, i saw some sites with raw excel data, are they the ones you used, I do watch the market all week and see which direction certain lines are moving etc, but i'd still need to come up with the numbers to be able to match and compare...

I'm just curious with the excel data i obtained for baseball, the lahman one for example, it seems pretty hard to sort it the way i want, ie. team by team etc, is their a data out their somewhere that'll give me access to a data or a program that lets me sort and look at data i only want to see as well as the full data?

IE. I want to look at all the teams playing on uh.. the san francisco giant's home field, or..

Team A vs Team B only
Stats on how different teams fair vs Pitcher A, and Pitcher B etc, etc... thanks

jtuck · 10-06-08, 08:11 PM

Covers.com. Useless forum but a gold mine for stats. Just click on the sport then click matchups and almost all of the stats you can need are in there. Poster rsigley had some excel databases dating back to 1985 for football and i believe 2001 for MLB here but they are not up right now.

yahoonino · 10-06-08, 09:17 PM

it notthing to handicap the spread all way kill you

Arrrby2 · 10-08-08, 06:09 PM

what do u mean by that? yahooino, i'm a bit confused

LT Profits · 10-09-08, 07:34 AM

Don't underestimate the importance of reverse line movement either.

Reverse line movements lead to big profits

Arrrby2 · 11-12-08, 09:33 PM

i'm curious does anyone happen to know how to convert a moneyline into a spread? the formula used that is... or a Percentage into a point spread..

for example

1) what is -130 equivalent to on a point spread, or what is +9 spread equivalent to on a moneyline.

2) what is a team I feel will win 40% of the times they play turned into a moneyline or a pointspread?

any help would be appreciated, thanks in advance...

MonkeyF0cker · 11-12-08, 10:15 PM

Check out Ganch's tools: http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Home.aspx

There is a spread converter that you can use. Down the road, you will want to use your own data to calculate such things but it requires a historical database of game data, which you should certainly acquire either by way of a service or by writing a web scraper. You'll certainly want to familiarize yourself with Excel or another statistical program and learning some programming languages like C#, C++, even Visual Basic would be a huge advantage. You'll definitely want to study your statistics and regression methods, eventually creating a win probability model for each market you venture into. This takes a great deal of time, research, and adjustment. You should also study Kelly staking methodologies. There is a good introductory video here by Justin that will get you started, along with plenty of informational posts by Ganch on the subject in the Think Tank. There is much to learn. Good luck.

Arrrby2 · 11-12-08, 10:33 PM

thanks alot i'll look through those you've mentioned.