Thoughts on Buying off the hook?

[Azzurri]

Do pros ever buy points? Is it a good idea to always buy off the hook if possible? Is this something that should always, sometimes or never be done or just off certain numbers? Any and all thoughts would be appreciated here.

[Justin7]

You buy when the price of buying is less than it should be.

NFL. If you think the "3" is worth 22 cents in a particular game, and you can buy the 3 for 20 cents, you do. For any buying decision, you have to have a conversion chart telling you how much any given hook is worth (and buying from +2.5 to +3 will be different from +3 to +3.5).

[Azzurri]

You buy when the price of buying is less than it should be.

NFL. If you think the "3" is worth 22 cents in a particular game, and you can buy the 3 for 20 cents, you do. For any buying decision, you have to have a conversion chart telling you how much any given hook is worth (and buying from +2.5 to +3 will be different from +3 to +3.5).

interesting..thanks Justin

so in Basketball its not worth the added juice?

[BuckeyeT]

In football its not a bad idea to buy the .5 on a key number..3...7..10..14..ect.

But in hoops is there really a "key" number? Im not quite so sure on that and i have NEVER bought the .5 point in hoops, but to each his own.

[Justin7]

In football its not a bad idea to buy the .5 on a key number..3...7..10..14..ect.

But in hoops is there really a "key" number? Im not quite so sure on that and i have NEVER bought the .5 point in hoops, but to each his own.

In most cases, buying a half-point in hoops for 10 cents is not very good. But if a book lets you but several, there are places you should do this.

[LT Profits]

I've been known to SELL points in hoops at Heritage, but you still need push rates.

[NSN21]

Push percentages are enormous, so you can correctly price the value of the 1/2 point. In football especially, it's also very important to pay attention to the total when deciding whether to buy points on the side. The lower the total, the lower the expected score. The lower the expected score, the more each point is worth. If I have a Steelers-Ravens matchup with a side of 2.5, a total of 34, and I have a shop that will let me buy onto the 3 for 20 cents, I am firing away. However, if it's New England - New Orleans with the same side but a total of 51, it's much more debatable.

[subs]

i'm not a sharp, but rather just wasting time in between bets. my $0.02 is no. depends how much u r paying but on the whole probably makes things worse.

never ever on totals for sure.

[LT Profits]

i'm not a sharp, but rather just wasting time in between bets. my $0.02 is no. depends how much u r paying but on the whole probably makes things worse.

never ever on totals for sure.

SELLING can be real good on hoop totals for the exact same reason why you should probably never buy.

[E Vincent]

Key numbers only in the NFL.

But with multiple outs, you shouldnt even have to worry about doing that.

[Thremp]

In most cases, buying a half-point in hoops for 10 cents is not very good. But if a book lets you but several, there are places you should do this.

I'm sure Pinnacle will be redoing their push charts based on your action there.

[LT Profits]

I'm sure Pinnacle will be redoing their push charts based on your action there.

Pinny isn't one of the books he is referring to because they charge the extra half-points correctly, he is talking about shops that charge a flat 10 cents per half and allow you to buy 3 points for 60 cents.

[Thremp]

No. He is talking about Pinnacle. You should become more familiar with what they charge.

[mathdotcom]

Pinny isn't one of the books he is referring to because they charge the extra half-points correctly, he is talking about shops that charge a flat 10 cents per half and allow you to buy 3 points for 60 cents.

Suppose a no juice book deals Knicks +0.5 +100

You buy 6 half points to get Knicks +3.5 -160

You need to hit this 61.5% of the time to break even. A quick look at the scoring distribution in my database makes buying these points a very poor idea, however at the moment I am too lazy to look more closely at the spreads where this sort of scenario is relevant. How can the 3 be this valuable?

[rm18]

Suppose a no juice book deals Knicks +0.5 +100

You buy 6 half points to get Knicks +3.5 -160

You need to hit this 61.5% of the time to break even. A quick look at the scoring distribution in my database makes buying these points a very poor idea, however at the moment I am too lazy to look more closely at the spreads where this sort of scenario is relevant. How can the 3 be this valuable?

If you can buy a line from -8.5 to -5.5-170, the -5.5 -170 does not have value blindly but if there is value in the -8.5 -110 there will be more value in the -5.5 -170

[Justin7]

I'm sure Pinnacle will be redoing their push charts based on your action there.

They only allow one to buy two half-points, and the second one costs more than the first. They look correct. As has been discussed, the real value arises when you are getting 6 half-points, each at 10 cents.

[Thremp]

In most cases, buying a half-point in hoops for 10 cents is not very good. But if a book lets you but several, there are places you should do this.

They only allow one to buy two half-points, and the second one costs more than the first. They look correct. As has been discussed, the real value arises when you are getting 6 half-points, each at 10 cents.

Let me help you. If buying for 10c is "not very good", then selling for 10c would be the exact opposite. Pinnacle offers many points in CBB/NBA that are sold for 10c.

Best of luck.

[durito]

nm.

[wrongturn]

I think what Justin7 means half point is worth more when it is farther away from market line. So 10c for one is not good deal, but 60c for half dozen is probably great deal.

[That Foreign Guy]

I think what Justin7 means half point is worth more when it is farther away from market line. So 10c for one is not good deal, but 60c for half dozen is probably great deal.

This is backwards from what I'd expect. I'd always assumed actual results (for fairly smooth distributions like basketball points difference) were more or less normally distributed around the spread.

[mathdotcom]

If you can buy a line from -8.5 to -5.5-170, the -5.5 -170 does not have value blindly but if there is value in the -8.5 -110 there will be more value in the -5.5 -170

Uhh.. why?

[mathdotcom]

The last 5 posts make no sense

[Thremp]

You buy when the price of buying is less than it should be.

NFL. If you think the "3" is worth 22 cents in a particular game, and you can buy the 3 for 20 cents, you do. For any buying decision, you have to have a conversion chart telling you how much any given hook is worth (and buying from +2.5 to +3 will be different from +3 to +3.5).

This is wrong for any Kelly bettor. And rather egregiously. I will write something that isn't so terrible: "You buy when it improves BR growth."

[Thremp]

This is backwards from what I'd expect. I'd always assumed actual results (for fairly smooth distributions like basketball points difference) were more or less normally distributed around the spread.

Is moving from +100 to -110 equivalent to moving from -150 to -160?

[LT Profits]

Uhh.. why?

Per the half-point calculator (which I know isn't perfect but it's close enough to illustrate this point), -8.5 -110 is equivalent to -8 -120.6, so not worth buying. However, it is also equivalent to -5.5 -189.3, which is in line to where 5 Dimes and Heritage would price them.

[calm]

You buy when the price of buying is less than it should be.

NFL. If you think the "3" is worth 22 cents in a particular game, and you can buy the 3 for 20 cents, you do. For any buying decision, you have to have a conversion chart telling you how much any given hook is worth (and buying from +2.5 to +3 will be different from +3 to +3.5).

Not true. Percentage-wise +2.5 to +3 is slightly different than +3 to +3.5, but "cents-wise" they're exactly the same.

[LT Profits]

Actually Heritage only allows buys of up to 2.5 points, but there is a game today where a team is -8.5, and Heritage has -6 -177 (in line with calculator's -175.6). So if that is fair price, shouldn't -5.5 -170 be +EV?

[LT Profits]

Suppose a no juice book deals Knicks +0.5 +100

You buy 6 half points to get Knicks +3.5 -160

You need to hit this 61.5% of the time to break even. A quick look at the scoring distribution in my database makes buying these points a very poor idea, however at the moment I am too lazy to look more closely at the spreads where this sort of scenario is relevant. How can the 3 be this valuable?

And this is right too, when I enter +0.5 +100, calc spits out +3.5 -150.9, so -EV. As has been mentioned, not all half-points are created equal.

[LT Profits]

Actually Heritage only allows buys of up to 2.5 points, but there is a game today where a team is -8.5, and Heritage has -6 -177 (in line with calculator's -175.6). So if that is fair price, shouldn't -5.5 -170 be +EV?

And the answer is apparently NO. After I made the quoted post, I noticed that the +6 on the other side was +141, so the no-vig line was -6 -154, which is equivalent to -5.5 -165 so no good.

[Thremp]

Per the half-point calculator (which I know isn't perfect but it's close enough to illustrate this point), -8.5 -110 is equivalent to -8 -120.6, so not worth buying. However, it is also equivalent to -5.5 -189.3, which is in line to where 5 Dimes and Heritage would price them.

The first sentence is very wrong.

[choo]

my suggestion would be to find a subset of historical data that covered the spread <50% of the time and avoid buying points in that situation moving forward otherwise go balls deep cuz that bad subset is actually weighing down the push percentages of the good subset so you in sicker than what half point calc tells you as long as you stay disciplined and only grab the good stuff good luck bro

[mathdotcom]

They only allow one to buy two half-points, and the second one costs more than the first. They look correct. As has been discussed, the real value arises when you are getting 6 half-points, each at 10 cents.

But be sure not to buy 5 half points of 7 half points ....

[That Foreign Guy]

Is moving from +100 to -110 equivalent to moving from -150 to -160?

I am slow pony. Thanks.

[subs]

Choo,

i looked at this but found arbitrarily applying different timescales made many subsets worthless. the few that seemed to hold seemed mostly random to me...

changing game and variance or incompetent investigation... prolly both.