New to the forum here and enjoy reading the threads. I've been a serious sports hdcp though for 15 years, which has brought me to this forum. I ask this question humbly and honestly. Have any of you found the right balance of money mgmt/system/stat hdcp that you can truly say this is a positive investment over time. I dream of finding that balance and can honestly say I've yet to find it and believe there is no such thing.
-
-
u have been doing it "seriously" for 15 years! wow....
if i didn't find it in a year or 2 would have given up. got to admire ur perseverance... it can be done tho.Comment -
I "trust" two handicappers up to a point (as well as my own hockey picks) but strictly practice bankroll management of 1% bets. Beginning Monday of each week, my standard unit bet is adjusted - 1% of bankroll. One or two parlays per week at 1 unit - very strict rule as parlays would drain me in the past. The ultimate goal is to average 1% gain each day or 7% weekly growth which doubles your money every 10 weeks.Comment -
You are in what they call a negative expectation environment. There is no balance here.
The whole thing is biased toward the side with an edge.
So your question should be "Can I have an edge?"
The answer is yes. There is nothing in the Universe that prohibits you from outperforming the market with a margin higher than commission you pay. No matter how mature, sophisticated and otherwise hard to beat that market is
you still can do it.
Now we arrive at the next question - what chance do you have to actually be able to do it?
Can you answer?Comment -
I can't say 100% certainty that what I do is truly profitable but the statistical tests are over the 99% significance level now.
If you don't understand that sentence that might explain why you're not profitable - Sportsbetting is fundamentally a math problem. Traditional handicapping (what I suspect you've been doing) is just doing maths without knowing what the numbers are.Comment -
That question was not " possible - not possible"
Anything is possible. 1 in 300000000 event happens in the US every day.
The question was, knowing task at hand, what is the chance that this particular individual is able to accomplish it.
I asked him to estimate his chance. That's all.
If handicapping is what you wanna do, start from handicapping yourself.Comment -
"Play long enough the House takes you, unless, when that perfect hand comes, you bet big- Then you take the House." Quote form a gambling movie that fits here.Comment
