Estimate good pickers who lose money by over betting

[Bullajami]

Contemplating Kelly some more.

Given that if you consistently make bets in excess of 2X the Kelly value for the actual win probability for your bets then you have created a situation where you have a losing expectation...


What would be your estimate of the percentage of sports bettors who can pick more winners than losers, but are still losing money because they are routinely overbetting their bankroll in relation to the advantage they have?

Just curious what some of you long time sports bettors estimate that percentage might be.

[rory borealis]

Contemplating Kelly some more.

Given that if you consistently make bets in excess of 2X the Kelly value for the actual win probability for your bets then you have created a situation where you have a losing expectation...


What would be your estimate of the percentage of sports bettors who can pick more winners than losers, but are still losing money because they are routinely overbetting their bankroll in relation to the advantage they have?

Just curious what some of you long time sports bettors estimate that percentage might be.

Someone OVERBETTING when they were of the small, small subset of individuals who were able to obtain a quantifiable edge is a crime of gargantuan proportions.

Still-- as the old adage goes -- the next best thing to "gambling & winning" is of course, "gambling & losing"

The late Huey Mahl in his "First Twenty" series of publications demonstrated how one could achieve the same profitability (& safety) by underbetting ONE'S KELLY advantage AS OPPOSED TO overbetting that same advantage

[topgame85]

I have been known to do just this I always pick more winners than losers but have often tried to make "the kill" on the book by betting a large sum on one match and losing

[Peep]

IF you overbet with a positive expectation, you also increase your chances of making a ton of money, as well as increase your chances of tapping out.

Just a choice of how you want to play the game. Your bankroll will be subject to dramatic flucuations, if you can live with that, overbet happily and may you strike gold.

[Sinister Cat]

I think it's tough to measure that because it only really works with a set bankroll. If the overbettor can always increase their bankroll (say, through a job, etc) then they aren't as likely to become totally barreled in.

I'd say there are more people who can pick winners and become ruined though, than there are people who pick winners and make a living on it.

[donjuan]

I doubt anyone who is supposedly overbetting Kelly to the point of -EG actually is. People really don't seem to understand what a Kelly bankroll is.

[Ganchrow]

Given that if you consistently make bets in excess of 2X the Kelly value for the actual win probability for your bets then you have created a situation where you have a losing expectation...

Insofar as "expectation" generally refers to the expected value of a bet, this is untrue with respect to Kelly. Consistently making bets in excess of about twice full-Kelly will imply negative expected growth for the bettor's bankroll but will result in a higher expected value.

If you want to net out the impact of a peculiar staking strategy one very simple method to use is to recast bets at a fixed (nominal) stake, and then examine those results. This should give you some indication of the bettor's pure skill at picking winners.

[reno cool]

wow, I agree with everybody.

Its rare that players with an edge would intuitively err on the side of overbetting kelly %.
and of course

IF you overbet with a positive expectation, you also increase your chances of making a ton of money, as well as increase your chances of tapping out.

Just a choice of how you want to play the game. Your bankroll will be subject to dramatic flucuations, if you can live with that, overbet happily and may you strike gold.

[Bullajami]

I doubt anyone who is supposedly overbetting Kelly to the point of -EG actually is. People really don't seem to understand what a Kelly bankroll is.

I agree, good sir, but my implication was that the pinciples of Kelly apply to bettors whether they are using it or not. Would you not agree?

[Bullajami]

Insofar as "expectation" generally refers to the expected value of a bet, this is untrue with respect to Kelly. Consistently making bets in excess of about twice full-Kelly will imply negative expected growth for the bettor's bankroll but will result in a higher expected value.

I would have bet 25% of my bankroll on a parlay that
1. I had screwed up my syntax somewhere in the OP and
2. You would both notice and mention it.

[Bullajami]

wow, I agree with everybody.

Lock this thread!