What would you do if....

[TheGambler]

your local used the wednesday newspaper for all weekend football lines. this is what happens in small town iowa!!! anyways, i have noticed over the last few weeks that some lines move 3-6 points. Overs and unders can even move more at times. Without doing anything fancy such as correlated parlays and IF wagers, how would you exploit this?
would you play every game that the line moved at least 3 points? would you play every game that the line moved over or under the "3" or "7"? any advice would be appreciated b/c i'm not a statistics wizard

[Ganchrow]

You could use the <a onClick = "var winTool = window.open( 'http://bettingtools.sbrforum.com/newcalc/half-point.html', '_blank', 'width=215,height=275,resizable=yes,stat us=no' ); return false;" >Half-Point Calculator</a> to determine win probabilities for the Wednesday lines based on, say, the current Pinnacle market.

[ico2525]

I just want to clarify this. Your local uses the lines from the paper on Wednesday, and they stay that way until game day (Saturday - Monday). You're saying what's the best way to exploit this? Unfortunately, this isn't as simple as it might seem.

Usually, I'd bet against the public. If a line goes from -5 to -8, I'd take the +8 on game day. In your case, your best bet is taking Wednesday's -5. Don't play too many games. Just play the 3 or 4 most extreme line movements.

[xyz]

I think you should act as a proxy, so other people can bet through you. I think it is still +ev if people pay you 5% of their winnings as commission.

[TheGambler]

i'm with you that this is a very unusual circumstance. i just want to make the best of it. thanks for your help

[durito]

to quote rickysteve: i would "start shopping for a yacht"

assuming he actually pays you

[BuddyBear]

Unfortunately, this isn't as simple as it might seem.

Actually, this is really simple. In fact, way too simple.

The only real concern would be making sure the local pays.

[MrX]

to quote rickysteve: i would "start shopping for a yacht"

Damn you, durito. I was going to say the exact same thing.

[Brady2Moss]

Looks like a sketchy deal to me, either this guy has no clue about NFL spreads or is just trying to outright scam you... Either way, be careful.

[LT Profits]

Do you know this guy? Is he reliable? If so, then DEFINITELY bet games that are off current market, even if you like the other side, and bet the play you like offshore.

For example, he has Team A -5 and you intend to bet 500 on Team B +8. You could bet A -5 for 500 with Mr. Hawkeye and bet B +8 for 1000 online.

[pico]

like durito said, this bookie is going out of business...unless all his clients only gets wed newspaper and have no access to internet.

[cinpls081]

how much can you bet per game? I would guess you are a really small player and you should know exactly what to do. Don't make predictions of who will win the game just make money...it won't be hard at all. Getting paid could be the hard part...

[cobra_king]

A few years back i had the same scenario. I got paid, but was cut off after about 4 weeks. My limit was small, $500 but my belief is you bet the max, capitalize for as long as he allows you, and set up a pay schedule so that you get paid (or pay) weekly or at a certain (not very high) limit. Running up a huge tab on a small time bookie is where you risk getting beaten.

[rory borealis]

LEGENDZ Parlay Card &quot;early week&quot; betting options

Not exactly the answer that is being looked for & I have not been at LEGENDZ since their return to servicing US players.

But let's take a look at LEGENDZ parlay card... I was looking at something similar to what SBR SharpThe Gambler , was speaking about in this thread's originating post.


I'm working off of memories a couple of years old.

1 - I think the LEGENDZ parlay card came out on Tuesday or Wednesday...so it meets one element of The Gambler's current situation


2 - If my recollection is correct:

Two teams paid 13.5 to 5 which comes close to -110 betting
Three teams paid 6 to 1 which also comes close to -110 betting

One special parlay would be offered at enhanced parlay prices each week(usually 5- or 6- teams)


3- The lines remained constant through NCAA Saturday & NFL Sunday/Monday Night



So if one had INDEED found 2 or 3 profitable betting events...one could round-robin the picks & still enjoy the benefits of -110 parlaying that SBR Moderator, Justin7 spoke of in his parlay video....

..as well as enjoy the "pointspread differential" that SBR Sharp, The Gambler wished to take advantage of.


RELATED NOTE:

a) This information is over twenty-years old, but The Gold Sheet did a "smart money" study between the opening & closing lines & found no increased profitability.

b) From the Sports Forums... we know of players who claim their accounts have been unilaterally closed by Offshore Books for the players betting what the books felt was "steam"

c) I am not informed enough on the subject to offer an intelligent opinion on the topic... I did however bet the LEGENDZ parlay card as SBR Sharp, The Gambler said he bet single games with his own bookie.

[jjgold]

Most of line movements are done by Wednesday so no big deal, plus it is useless unless you can predict line movements. If you bet the Giants -5 on Wed and the closing line ends up Giants -3 you will lose your shirt.

[xyz]

RELATED NOTE:

a) This information is over twenty-years old, but The Gold Sheet did a "smart money" study between the opening & closing lines & found no increased profitability.

What was the setup for this study? When the player pick against opening line, do they know what the closing line is? If so, it is similar to The Gambler's situation, which should be a profitable one for the player.

[donjuan]

Most of line movements are done by Wednesday so no big deal, plus it is useless unless you can predict line movements.

Wat?

[Nicky Santoro]

ive had many in my fukkin life exactly like this, and they always end the same.. you will get stiffed at the end, or cut off.. usually, they end up stiffing you. these guys never last.. they think they know wht they are doing.. they have no clue.. just be prepared to not get paid at the end. if you can make a nice chunk out of it, consider yourself lucky. a bookie cannot stay in business doing this.. his small customers will lose, and you will smoke him.. This works best with NBA, not NFL.. NBA line movements are worth a lot.. when Kobe is scratched 1 hr before game time,that line will go from -12.5, to -6.5 or -7.. 6 pts in the NBA mean way way more than anything you will get in nfl.. or when total in NFL is 43.5 and wind is gusting and snowstorm expected and now total is 35.. this is big..

all i can say is, be very very very careful here, and the longer you can do this, consider yourself fortunate. this will NOT last long, mark my words. and get ready to not get paid at the end for a large chunk.. when he stiffs you, or when he goes broke.. but chances are, if he has a head on his shoulder, he'll cut you off fast.

[smitch124]

You can try to figure out how much to bet that if you win consistantly it won't be a huge deal to the bookie and continue to get paid, if you don't get greedy it might last longer.

[rory borealis]

What was the setup for this study? When the player pick against opening line, do they know what the closing line is? If so, it is similar to The Gambler's situation, which should be a profitable one for the player.

I don't recall...may have been early money moves when what was then known as the "outlaw line" had been finalized and the initial numbers went up at The Stardust Hotel/Casino Sportsbook.

Sorry i couldn't be of more help