Calculate EV question

[Winner_13]

True odds:
Parlay 2 events -150 each.

Payout = 1.78

but u can get this same bet with a payout of $2.

Is your Ev +.22?

Thanks

[Blax0r]

I got + .08, assuming $1 parlay, and 2-1 payout.

p(win 1 event) = 150/250 = .6
p(win both events) = .6*.6 = .36
EV(parlay) = .36*2 - .64 = .08

[Winner_13]

Im not sure..can someone enlighten me plz!

[FourLengthsClear]

Blaxor is correct.

If you assume -150 is the fair line for each event then:

Fair odds for 2 teamer = +177.8 = 36.00% probability
Available odds for the 2 teamer = +200 = 33.33% implied probability

+EV is (probability / implied probability of the odds) minus 1

so

36.00% / 33.33% = 1.08
minus 1
= 8%

[Winner_13]

so yr expected to make $8 if u risk $100?

[FourLengthsClear]

so yr expected to make $8 if u risk $100?

Yes, the expected value/expected profit is 8% of the amount risked.

[Winner_13]

according justin7 anything over 7.5% ev is considered a bad line and books may not have to pay it

[FourLengthsClear]

according justin7 anything over 7.5% ev is considered a bad line and books may not have to pay it

What is the source of the -150, are those actual odds or the no-vig equivalent?
If the former, is the other side +130?

[Winner_13]

it was hypothetical case,
but I could prob find opportunities similar to this.


im assuming to get the true EV -150 would have to be the no vig line

[FourLengthsClear]

it was hypothetical case,
but I could prob find opportunities similar to this.

im assuming to get the true EV -150 would have to be the no vig line

In which case it is obviously difficult to comment on whether the +200 would/could be considered as a bad line.
To me it would fall under the category of "slightly off market" which is fair game in my book.