NCAAF Correlated parlay butt kicking I took

durito · 09-04-08, 10:17 AM

You won 3 of 7.

There's a reason no books take these. Bet them while you can.

HedgeHog · 09-04-08, 11:01 AM

I think he had 2 of 14 (bet -/Ov and +/Un in each game) and should've had 3 of 14. While a loser last week, this will win in the long run. This is the reason SB.com started stealing money from correlated par players.

Lippsman · 09-04-08, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by HedgeHog

I think he had 2 of 14 (bet -/Ov and +/Un in each game) and should've had 3 of 14. While a loser last week, this will win in the long run. This is the reason SB.com started stealing money from correlated par players.

You are correct I was 2 out of 14. Considering even when you when a side you will lose the other.

I will give it a go again this week, but sure won't be as cocky about them. Maybe a blessing that I did lose them last week. It will throw the "guy" off of them a bit.

HedgeHog · 09-04-08, 12:25 PM

Best bets this week are the Ohio St -34/ Over 45.5 and Ohio U +34/Under 45.5 parlays. You have about 70% chance of hitting one of them.

HedgeHog · 09-04-08, 12:27 PM

Alabama/Tulane situation looks sweet, too.

Lippsman · 09-04-08, 01:27 PM

Originally posted by HedgeHog

Best bets this week are the Ohio St -34/ Over 45.5 and Ohio U +34/Under 45.5 parlays. You have about 70% chance of hitting one of them.

I was just wondering about your 70% chance statement. Is that a guess or based on a formula?

Thanks

HedgeHog · 09-04-08, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by Lippsman

I was just wondering about your 70% chance statement. Is that a guess or based on a formula?

Thanks

Educated estimate. Non-correlated pars can expect roughly 25% ATS for each possible result (+/O,-O,+U,-U). However, heavily correlated pars significantly reduce the -U par %. For example, if Ohio St covers 34 points, it would be very difficult for the game to go under 45.5 (in fact impossible if the opponent scores 6 or more points).

So a game this heavily correlated would expect to see parlay win percentages as follows (again educated estimates):

-/O 35%
+/U 35%
+/O 25%
-/U 5%

smitch124 · 09-04-08, 04:51 PM

Originally posted by Lippsman

I was just wondering about your 70% chance statement. Is that a guess or based on a formula?

Thanks

I also think there is data for the expected edge or win rate depending on the ratio of the Total to the Spread.

I think anything under 2.3 is especially profitable, unfortunately I don't have #'s. Maybe someone else can elaborate, but from what little I know the example given in this thread (Ohio/Ohio St.) has a pretty healthy edge...

Lippsman · 09-05-08, 05:56 PM

Here are the ones I am looking at for Saturday. Spread, OU and correlation percentage

Alabama -30.5, 45.........67.77 %
Nebraska -27, 57.5........46.95 %
Oaklaoma -22, 52.5.......41.90 %
Wisconsin -20.5, 51.5....38.83 %
Georgia -24, 56............42.85 %
Notre Dame -22, 43.......51.16%
Utah -21.5, 42.5...........50.58 %
Arizona U -23, 60..........38.33 %
Iowa -26.5, 41.5...........63.85 %

I was thinking about killing the two 38's, but that is still pretty high.

Thanks for the input

RickySteve · 09-05-08, 06:15 PM

"correlation percentage"

Lippsman · 09-05-08, 10:02 PM

Originally posted by RickySteve

"correlation percentage"

What about the percentage? Did you see something I missed?

Thanks

Doug · 09-06-08, 01:58 PM

I'd have no problem betting 2-3% of BR on each one, maybe more, if you want to aggressive. I might tend to bet the under ones a bit stronger than the over ones, maybe 3 units under, 2 over.

They will win over a bigger sample.

Lippsman · 09-06-08, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by Doug

I'd have no problem betting 2-3% of BR on each one, maybe more, if you want to aggressive. I might tend to bet the under ones a bit stronger than the over ones, maybe 3 units under, 2 over.

They will win over a bigger sample.

Thanks for the input Doug, things have started out better this week than last. I did play two units on each side. Interesting that I have seen posters advise on a few sites to shade the fave and over instead of the dog and under.

Thanks again

Doug · 09-06-08, 08:24 PM

better would be to form an opinion on the game, put 4 units the way you cap it, 1 unit the other way Or 3.5/1.5units), but I think going blindly... the under is the better correlation, I'm not 100% sure the under is better, but I think so. I don't bet these anymore.... not because they aren't good, just a lack of outs, and ways to move monies.

smitch124 · 09-06-08, 09:11 PM

Intuitively the under definitely looks like a better coorelation. I wonder if its better to just bet that side and take less wins with a higher ROI...

Lippsman · 09-06-08, 09:51 PM

These have been hitting much better this week. Also I have been hedging with 2nd half wagers on the ones that made sense, to protect from both sides losing and I have hit both of them. A very nice day indeed.

After going 2-5 last week I don't think the guy will pull the plug on this good week. But another few like this one and things may change. But I will enjoy it as long as I can.

I will post the outcome of each game, noting which side hit.

Thanks to everyone here.

Lippsman · 09-06-08, 10:20 PM

Oh man, that Utah game really hurt.....Fricken' hook. Well at least that was another game where I cover myself by taking over 23.5 in the 2nd half for almost the same amount of units to cover myself. So not really that bad, but it could of been a real nice hit. Yeah it was a chance of middling myself but I thought the risk was worth it.

Lippsman · 09-06-08, 10:37 PM

I just put two units on Arizona U at -10. If Toledo is going to cover this thing they will have to put the game at a standstill. I want to cover myself in case of a 21-7 or 17-6 Arizona type of half. Yes it could blow up in my face with 14-7 or 21-14 game, but I just don't see Toledo putting that many points on the board in the 2nd half.

Sorry to ramble on.

Hope everyone had a money type of day.

Doug · 09-06-08, 10:50 PM

over time ( a season) these will hit at a profitable rate, nearly impossible for them to not do so.

Lippsman · 09-07-08, 12:03 AM

17-10 half does me in. Oh well, still not a bad day. Although losing the last two does sting a bit.

Have a good one everyone

HedgeHog · 09-07-08, 07:45 PM

If you're gonna sweat every game, either don't watch them or don't bet them. If you have a winning system, why torture yourself by dwelling over the inevitable losses.

Lippsman · 09-07-08, 08:13 PM

Originally posted by HedgeHog

If you're gonna sweat every game, either don't watch them or don't bet them. If you have a winning system, why torture yourself by dwelling over the inevitable losses.

I don't sweat everygame, in fact I don't even watch them unless I don't have anything going on and this past weekend I had the house to myself so tons of free time. For wagering and posting

I wager with to burn money, not anything that I have to have.

This seemed like a good place to just shoot the breeze and chat.

Hope you had a good profit this weekend

dogman · 09-08-08, 07:20 AM

I don't mean to be negative here but the best thing about correlated parlays is---if you have a local or book that accepts them is to not talk about them. I had a book last year who accepted them until 2 weeks before the end of college football season and then took them down. Best thing to do is keep quiet and make money. I have used the pm in the past if I wanted to ask questions on them.Good Luck, Lipps.

Lippsman · 09-08-08, 07:43 AM

You are not being negative at all. The local I use isn't a internet guy, just the backroom bar type you see in the movies. A dying breed indeed.

Thanks

HedgeHog · 09-08-08, 08:18 AM

If you bet all 9 games listed this week, each with Fav/Ov and Dog/Un pars, then I think you finished a very profitable 7-11. Tough beat on the Utah/OV, but a half point win on the Iowa/Ov (won 42-0, spotting -26.5 with a Total of 41.5) helped a lot.

xyz · 09-18-08, 09:24 PM

Which games do you have for the parlay this week? Thanks.

rumple · 09-18-08, 10:09 PM

How is this bookie in business. jeez.