Big line moves after you wager... what do you do?

[Automoto]

Question:

You make a play on a side and after you do so, the line makes a big move.

Do you make another wager to cover the move if the line moves against you?

Example: You play a side at -14 and the line moves to -11. Looks like the smart money is going to the underdog so should you place another wager to negate the original bet or take your side with the new line?



If the line was advantageous for you, do you make another wager and try to middle it?

For example, say you play Team A when the line is at +14 and soon after, then line moves to +11. Since it appears that the smart money is being played on the other side, do you place a wager on the opposing side and try to middle?



Any thoughts?

[FourLengthsClear]

Broadly speaking you should not make any further wagers unless you think/calculate that the new line represents value in it's own right.

In the case of your second example, where the line has moved in your favour; at the time of betting the +14 what did you think/calculate the fair line should have been? If it was say +12 and nothing (aside for the line movement itself) has changed then betting the -11 and giving you the middle would make sense. The correct way of looking at it though is not that you are taking a middle, rather that you have made two separate +EV bets.

[135steward]

Who's "you?" I.e., What would "who" do?

If you're looking for comparative answers to your question, you got a very good math-based answer from 4LC. But you should define your own betting style to answer your question. If you're really in to math, then the think tank is great.

I like the think tank, but simply enjoy betting games and rooting for whoever I picked. Are you a math-based bettor? Then do something mathmatical with your bet. Did you believe in your choice? Then double your bet with the new line. Do you trust others' judgment more than your own? Then hedge the bet you used as an example. If you're a flat bettor, then stand pat. Either way, enjoy the game.

[mathdotcom]

This is a really tough question. You bet -14 because your model liked it and now it's -11; the math says bet more. But it could be there is some information you don't know about and you are suddenly less confident in your pick.

For full game lines I am inclined to back off, and not bet either side anymore because it is likely an information thing.

For volatile markets like 2H, I respect steam a lot less because it takes relatively little $$ to move a line, and I will often keep buying. But sometimes you keep getting pushed back and eventually you have to decide when to stop.