[Dylan]

Hey folks!

I'm trying to decide what percentage of my bankroll should I bet on each game. Here's some data

-I can consistently predict who wins 68.6800895% of the time. This is over a span of 1340 games.

-I predict correctly 79.6442688% when betting on the favourite, and when betting for the underdog I'm correct 34.9544073% of the time.

-I have also logged the odds and how my win percentage for each odd. For example at 1.3 decimal odds moneylines, I'm correct 93% of the time. I've managed to come up with a pretty strongly correlated linear equation for this data.

So should I use my overall percentage when calculating Kelly, a weighted one depending on if I'm betting on a favourite or not, or use my equation to estimate my win percentage based on the decimal odds?

Also should I use some sort of fractional Kelly? Also since games can be simultaneous, how should I deal with that?

[Winner_13]

30 percent
ur guna be a billionare fast

[Dex17]

Um, I guess I'm just being selfish but I'd like to see your weekly picks! Do you have a thread?

I'm no expert, but it seems like your 79% prediction rate with faves is statistically significant. In that case, I would be very aggressive with my bankroll for faves, and sit on your hands when you want to pick a dog!

[beeney24]

5% as a base...

[jamesbettor]

Personally, I prefer to bet just 1% of my starting bankroll per game. I suppose that's a fairly conservative amount though.

[Metanoia]

With 93% at 1.3 odds, 10% will make your bank grow really fast, adjust the percentage on each bet

[DRZ]

3 to 5 % of your bankroll per game

[dee_jas]

1% on a normal bet and 3-5% on a really strong bet.

[Dylan]

30 percent ur guna be a billionare fast

Haha, I appreciate your optimism.

Um, I guess I'm just being selfish but I'd like to see your weekly picks! Do you have a thread? I'm no expert, but it seems like your 79% prediction rate with faves is statistically significant. In that case, I would be very aggressive with my bankroll for faves, and sit on your hands when you want to pick a dog!

Unfortunately, I don't have a thread. I actually just found out about this site a couple days ago and decided to join yesterday. Keep in mind, I'm just betting on who wins the games (money lines) and not run lines.

Thanks for the advice about not picking underdogs.

5% as a base...

Thanks for your input.

Personally, I prefer to bet just 1% of my starting bankroll per game. I suppose that's a fairly conservative amount though.

Sometimes a conservative approach is the right approach. Do you adjust at all depending on your estimated win percentage?

With 93% at 1.3 odds, 10% will make your bank grow really fast, adjust the
percentage on each bet

Thanks for your reply too. Just to be sure, you're suggesting I adjust each bet depending on my estimated win probability, and then apply a 10% Kelly?

3 to 5 % of your bankroll per game

That seems to be the general rule of thumb.


Thanks everyone who posted! Much appreciated.

[Peregrine Stoop]

first, I think you would be best off learning how to use a search function on the internet OP

[Dylan]

first, I think you would be best off learning how to use a search function on the internet OP

OK, sorry if I offended you. I actually did use both Google Search and the search engine here.

I wanted to know specifically for me, with the data I provided, how much I should wager.

Again, sorry if I offended you.

Merry Christmas Eve!

[hitthew8room]

1%-5% everyone is different

[Peeig]

If you did search this forum, you should have realized what the answers are.............but clearly you didn't so you are listening to the heresay in this thread.........good luck with that.

[CrimsonQueen]

It's impossible to say anything with the data you provided, being that you are betting moneylines and not spreads. So saying you hit favorites 95% of the time means nothing if you're only betting moneylines of -10000 or worse... In other words, from the data you provided, you could be a losing bettor, or you could be a millionaire.
The only significant data you provided was at 1.3 decimal odds you hit 93%, where you should be hitting 77%. So...clearly you have an edge in that category... but without more data... I will simply say...
Don't bet more than 5% on a big favorite...and don't bet more than 1% on a dog.

[Dylan]

It's impossible to say anything with the data you provided, being that you are betting moneylines and not spreads. So saying you hit favorites 95% of the time means nothing if you're only betting moneylines of -10000 or worse... In other words, from the data you provided, you could be a losing bettor, or you could be a millionaire. The only significant data you provided was at 1.3 decimal odds you hit 93%, where you should be hitting 77%. So...clearly you have an edge in that category... but without more data... I will simply say... Don't bet more than 5% on a big favorite...and don't bet more than 1% on a dog.

Thanks for the feedback.

Here's some more data.
The first column is the odds and the second column is my Win% with those odds...
1.1 100%
1.2 88%
1.3 93%
1.4 81%
1.5 80%
1.6 74%
1.7 66%
1.8 80%
1.9 56%
2.0 56%
2.1 70%
2.2 54%
2.3 25%
2.4 44%
2.5 31%
2.6 42%
2.7 8%
2.8 15%

The linear equation I referred to in my first post would be y=-47.6264189886482x+151.927072583419.
Where x represents the decimal odds, and y represents the estimated win percentage with the given odds.

My overall average edge, from my calculations, is 3.5745126%.

So, I guess my new question is should I always bet 3.5745126% of my bankroll, or should I adjust according to the given odds?

Thanks for taking the time to respond!
Merry Christmas!

[donsirlisir]

if your strike rate on 2.1 is 70 percent , then play 20 percent of your bankroll on odds 2.1 and you'll be a millionaire after 1000 bets

[Dylan]

if your strike rate on 2.1 is 70 percent , then play 20 percent of your bankroll on odds 2.1 and you'll be a millionaire after 1000 bets

Haha, I predict regression toward the mean on 2.1 odds.

But, again, thank-you for your reply and for your optimism.

Merry Christmas!

[TomG]

If people actually used the search functions extensively and then spent the time to read the old posts, there would be no need for 90% of the posts in this forum.

[Tomato]

All in

[kokky]

Start with 1%, after 100 bets, see if you are ready for 2%, after another 100 bets you see are you redy for 3%

[Wrecktangle]

Dylan (nice name, BTW), this topic has been beat to death here in the tank. Do a search and you'll find a lot of threads that should answer many Qs: Fractional Kelly, less so, Simultaneous Kelly, hardly at all.

I'd read those and then repost.

However, I advise that folks *never* use Kelly as you must really know your math especially Bayesian Priors, changes within your sport over a season, and are a strict record keeper. Even folks who seriously know their Kelly business come up on the bankroll rocks...a lot.

[Peeig]

FYP

Arr in

[uva3021]

well since you've calculated your edge for each odds value, then your kelly stake should be explicit in your data

[skjjb4]

If you win at 77% rate on the winners ,then I would play 10% a wager and adjust daily. Whatever you decide to wager then stay with the system. Most people lose their bankroll because they do not have a system or the discipline to stay with it.Good Luck.

[gem605]

Better yet. Stay away from dogs all together and just stuick with the favs if your that consistant... Which i doubt.

[Tuna Fish Riot]

1% if you are playing for fun and want to earn some pizza money.

5% if you want to make some extra money to buy gifts or eat at fancy restaurants.

30% if you want to make a good side income.

50% if you want to become rich from sports betting.

90% if the play is SUPER LOCKED.

100% if the play is ULTRA LOCKED.

100% + 30% from a loan, if the play is ULTRA x2 (or higher) LOCKED.

[Masu485]

I would go all-in on one play and chances are you will hit it. Then you can quit for a few months and repeat that again.

[testudo]

1% on a normal bet and 3-5% on a really strong bet.

agree with this 100%

[blackbox]

OK - CUT YOUR TOTAL BANKROLL IN HALF--play with one of the halves at 5% per wager. Recalculate after each wager-never touching the other bankroll. You can play for life and never tap out. gl sir. money management is the key.