Taking closing lines that are 3 points or more off of opener?

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  • toastedbread01
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 04-06-07
    • 753

    #1
    Taking closing lines that are 3 points or more off of opener?
    I was wondering if anyone had experimented with this, or if this had been studied before?

    For instance say a line opens at +3 and moves to +6 at closing. Assuming no injuries or suspensions or anything unusual. How would one perform by always taking the extra 3 points or any extra amount, for that matter.

    Thanks.
  • donjuan
    SBR MVP
    • 08-29-07
    • 3993

    #2
    Not very well. The market is better than the linesmakers.
    Comment
    • dwaechte
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 08-27-07
      • 5481

      #3
      It's been discussed and some are pretty strong believers in doing something like that, but personally I didn't think they were well informed or that their arguments were very persuasive. Although, most of the arguments were centered around less movement(say 1 or 2 points rather than 3).

      Plus, I doubt you'd find many plays that fit this description. For a game to move 3 points without anything "unusual" would be very unusual in itself.
      Comment
      • Justin7
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 07-31-06
        • 8577

        #4
        You will see this frequently in the last week or so of NFL. A good team plays a meaningless game, and rests all its starters. Every one of them. Line moves of 3+ are not unusual, and the "better team" almost always loses badly. In this case, the line move is sharp.

        research it, and tell me what you find. But don't bet it without some good data.
        Comment
        • durito
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 07-03-06
          • 13173

          #5
          This thread is basically the same idea:



          It rightfully got moved out of the think tank, if that gives you an idea of how well this idea should work.
          Comment
          • dwaechte
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-27-07
            • 5481

            #6
            Originally posted by durito
            This thread is basically the same idea:



            It rightfully got moved out of the think tank, if that gives you an idea of how well this idea should work.
            That's the one I was thinking of, couldn't find it though.
            Comment
            • smitch124
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 05-19-08
              • 12566

              #7
              Originally posted by durito
              This thread is basically the same idea:



              It rightfully got moved out of the think tank, if that gives you an idea of how well this idea should work.
              Why are all the "thes" in red in that thread it's very annoying..
              Comment
              • durito
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 07-03-06
                • 13173

                #8
                because i searched for outside the box

                use this

                Comment
                • smitch124
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 05-19-08
                  • 12566

                  #9
                  Its actually a very informative thread Durito, now the first point may be off but the rebuttals are very interesting.
                  Comment
                  • RickySteve
                    Restricted User
                    • 01-31-06
                    • 3415

                    #10
                    Fading moves is hardly the worst idea in the world. I'd certainly rather have the +6 than the -6.
                    Comment
                    • Peep
                      SBR MVP
                      • 06-23-08
                      • 2295

                      #11
                      If you would like to test your idea rather than just talk about it, Jim Fiest.com has opening and closing lines for most sports last three years in an easily accessable format.

                      Comment
                      • Cyclone
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 07-20-06
                        • 141

                        #12
                        I did a lot of testing (and wasted a lot of money) on this a few years ago, and I couldn't find an advantage. Maybe there is something to it and I just couldn't find it, but I wouldn't be very optimistic.
                        Comment
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