[bztips]

thx for noticing Data.

You probably won't hear much from me over the winter -- I'm a baseball bettor mostly.

[Resler]

No sh*t it's "just a prediction". That doesn't mean you can't have an accurate ESTIMATE of your edge. And in fact if you're betting without having a good idea of what that estimate is, you're a certain loser over the long run -- which from many of the ridiculous comments in this thread, it's clear that most posters are such losers.

Think about what you are saying? There is know way to be able to calculate your edge before the game. If someone actually could calculate the degree of their edge, you would never bet on a game where your edge is minimal, you would just unload on the big edge game and you'd be rich. You'll know after the game but there is no no no way to know how big your edge is at all before the game.

[sneak-a-peak]

Think about what you are saying? There is know way to be able to calculate your edge before the game. If someone actually could calculate the degree of their edge, you would never bet on a game where your edge is minimal, you would just unload on the big edge game and you'd be rich. You'll know after the game but there is no no no way to know how big your edge is at all before the game.

Sometimes the "edge" is just simply mathematical and not so much about the 2 teams that are playing each other...... but that kinda stuff is really just for the advanced and not so much for the novice bettor.

So sometimes there is a due process to get the higher edged games......

Thats all I'm going to say.

GL

[bztips]

Think about what you are saying? There is know way to be able to calculate your edge before the game. If someone actually could calculate the degree of their edge, you would never bet on a game where your edge is minimal, you would just unload on the big edge game and you'd be rich. You'll know after the game but there is no no no way to know how big your edge is at all before the game.

I meant exactly what I said. And you should follow your own advice -- "never bet on a game where your edge is minimal". On the other hand, your belief that "there is no way to calculate your edge before the game" is just wrong, period. If you do not have ability to calculate your edge, the reality is that you should not be betting at all; but if you do, you shouldn't expect to be sucessful at it -- which probably describes 95% of the bettors out there.

[Resler]

How do YOU calculate edge? You either think a pick with either win or lose against the spread, you may like a game more than another, but that is hardly calculating an edge. Tell me how you calculate edge?

[That Foreign Guy]

You calculate a fair price / line and see how much better than fair the offered price /line is.

Even if you're just picking games you like because of the colours of the jerseys you should have some opinion on what a fair price is.

[bztips]

Resler, since you asked me: I build models and then act on their predictions relative to what the offered line is. Yes, I recognize that most people do not do this, but as TFG just intimated no matter how you arrive at your selection you should at least have an educated guess as to what a fair price is. If you don't, then frankly you're in the wrong forum; go spout your opinions in Player's Talk.

[Sawyer]

Flat Betting is good. Unit Scale system (1/10-10/10) is for amateurs.

You can't know which play will win and which play won't win.

My question is,

Your bets with higher stakes/units win more often?

If your answer is yes, then why you play other bets? (the ones with low stakes/confidence)
If your answer is no, why you don't bet flat?

Either way, I'm right, LoL.

[durito]

Flat Betting is good. Unit Scale system (1/10-10/10) is for amateurs.

You can't know which play will win and which play won't win.

My question is,

Your bets with higher stakes/units win more often?

If your answer is yes, then why you play other bets? (the ones with low stakes/confidence)
If your answer is no, why you don't bet flat?

Either way, I'm right a complete moron , LoL.

fixed