Who really is an expert?

[Professor1215]

SBR Forum,

I would like for all the "experts" who use this site to answer the following 2-part question for me.

What is the difference between probability and degree of certainty and what are the formula's for each of them?

Any relevant information will result in 5 points from me.

Thanks,

Professor1215

[FourLengthsClear]

Probability is a measure of certainty/uncertainty.

You might start out by googling "Confidence Interval".

[sapidoc]

As FLC pointed out, probability is the measure of the likeliness that a random even will occur.

Here's an example:

Assuming all outcomes are equally likely (ie. rolling a die):

Probability = (number of outcomes you are interested in) / (total possible number of outcomes)

Probability of event A is written like: P(A)

So if we say define A = roll a 5 using a single die, then P(A) = events I want / total events = {roll a 5** / {roll 1,2,3,4,5,6) = 1 / 6 =~ 0.16666...

If we say define B = roll an odd number using a single die, then P(B) = events I want / total events = ** roll 1, 3, 5** / roll {1,2,3,4,5,6** = 3/6 = 0.5

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Again, FLC pointed out that you should look at Confidence Intervals (since 'degree of certainty' was in the context of probability):

The Confidence interval is used to indicate the reliability of an estimate.

Wikipedia has a great example for calculating confidence intervals:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_Interval#Examples

[Professor1215]

What about degree of certainty?

[FourLengthsClear]

What about degree of certainty?

It is a subjective term.

[Professor1215]

What does the non-vig line tell you?

Thanks again!