Determining Odds / Probability of Team A over Team B

[jolmscheid]

I have been searching for hours on where to find the probability of Team A beating Team B. From what I understand there is a way to do it.

I know that in a "close" game, the probability is 50% that one team will beat another team.

But how to you determine what the odds are of a team who is 10-1 will be against a 2-9 team?

Is this something that must be determined from a system or can you simply use http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/odds-converter/ and just type in the moneyline and use the implied probability?

[jolmscheid]

Thanks in advance, and will look forward to some insight on this!

[uva3021]

Log 5 Formula

(TeamA - TeamA * TeamB) / (TeamA + TeamB - 2 * TeamA * TeamB)

[jolmscheid]

Log 5 Formula

(TeamA - TeamA * TeamB) / (TeamA + TeamB - 2 * TeamA * TeamB)

Thanks uva! So what exactly do the values of "Team A" and Team B" mean? Is that moneyline values, odds, etc ??

Thanks for the help!

[ManBearPig]

Thanks uva! So what exactly do the values of "Team A" and Team B" mean? Is that moneyline values, odds, etc ?? Thanks for the help!

Yes, they are percentages...here's an article I saved off a while back, but you could also find a good amount of info just Goggling it.

[Wrecktangle]

Yes, they are percentages...here's an article I saved off a while back, but you could also find a good amount of info just Goggling it.

So, Bill James spent how many pages justifying Bayes Formula? I'm going to have to get this book.