arbitrage with parlays

[hoobiwan]

Hi

i need your help please.
My local bookmaker offers often better odds than most online bookmakers ( exchangers included ) but requires that people play a minimum of 3 events ( parlay ).
Is there anyway we can use for arbitrage ? any tips ?

[That Foreign Guy]

Why is everyone obsessed with arbitrage? Just round robin the **** out of the worst lines and make manies.

[Justin7]

What odds does he offer? If it is much higher than 7:1, there are plenty of ways to arb it.

[hoobiwan]

that foreign guy : i think arbitrage is a way to make money too especially if i'm sure that my book will pay me even if the sum is big. and can you please explain to me more about your idea about round robin.

Justin7 : often the difference between the odds of online bookmakers and my local book is 0.50 point and high ( decimal odds ). For example this day i saw :

- 2.50 odds ( local book ) / 2.00 odds ( exchanger bookmaker back ).
- 9 odds ( local book ) / 6.00 odds ( exchanger bookmaker back ).
- +25 points spread line ( local book ) / +10 points spread line ( exchanger bookmaker ) ( Euroleague basketball).
- +15 points spread line ( local book ) / +8 points spread line ( exchanger bookmaker ) ( Euroleague basketball).

thanks for your help.

[Justin7]

If your local is offering 2.5 on 3 matches with different starting times, and your exchange has 2.0, you could do a "stepladder scalp".

For example, you parlay 3 teams at 2.5, risking 100. You risk 110 at 2.0 on the other team. If the 2.5 team wins, you now have 250 equity at risk, but lost 110. Or, the event is over, and you profited 10.

Second leg, you risk 220 on other side of the parlay. Again, if the parlay loses, you're up 10. If the parlay wins the second leg, you're out 330, but have 525 in equity on last leg. Repeat.

I did this fast, so numbers might be dorked, but you get the idea.

You can frequently do stepladder scalps on NFL teasers as well (or stepladder polish middles).

[hoobiwan]

i knew this concept but looking for other methods. the problem is that there is 3 outcomes : 1X2. ( soccer matches ). and for stepladder polish middles i will check your book. thanks anyway.

[kostasgr]

Who is the book that gives 2.5 instead of 2???

[hoobiwan]

local one not online .

[Justin7]

i knew this concept but looking for other methods. the problem is that there is 3 outcomes : 1X2. ( soccer matches ). and for stepladder polish middles i will check your book. thanks anyway.

You might accomplish the same thing mixing 1x2 with handicap, if the spread is +/- 0.5.

[That Foreign Guy]

Arbitrage is a way to make a very small amount of money out of a situation where you should be making a very big one.

[hoobiwan]

Everything have a beginning and i'm at that point ( arbitrage ) and i keep learning.
thank you anyway for your point of view i understand clearly what you mean.

[allin1]

Arbitrage is a way to make a very small amount of money out of a situation where you should be making a very big one.

but at what risks? that is the important thing, and that is why some guys arb as long as they can, because they are making small profits but with almost no risks.

[TMoney33]

If your local is offering 2.5 on 3 matches with different starting times, and your exchange has 2.0, you could do a "stepladder scalp". For example, you parlay 3 teams at 2.5, risking 100. You risk 110 at 2.0 on the other team. If the 2.5 team wins, you now have 250 equity at risk, but lost 110. Or, the event is over, and you profited 10. Second leg, you risk 220 on other side of the parlay. Again, if the parlay loses, you're up 10. If the parlay wins the second leg, you're out 330, but have 525 in equity on last leg. Repeat. I did this fast, so numbers might be dorked, but you get the idea. You can frequently do stepladder scalps on NFL teasers as well (or stepladder polish middles).

I like this idea. I never really considered using different game times in order to hedge ladder a parlay. It seems like a pretty interesting concept. At normal NFL odds of -110, you would need to get the first 1 or 2 games right unhedged to make a profit though right? If you started out betting the opposite side on the first game at -110, you would come out behind in the end right? I'm still trying to wrap my mind around this, but it seems promising.

[Justin7]

I like this idea. I never really considered using different game times in order to hedge ladder a parlay. It seems like a pretty interesting concept. At normal NFL odds of -110, you would need to get the first 1 or 2 games right unhedged to make a profit though right? If you started out betting the opposite side on the first game at -110, you would come out behind in the end right? I'm still trying to wrap my mind around this, but it seems promising.

While you might find rogue NFL numbers allowing a scalp, you'll see +EV teasers every week. If you find a -6.5 point favorite, a 2-team 6-pt teaser at +100 (or a 4-team 6-pt at +300) is effectively laying -241 on that team.

If you tease a-7 to -8.5 point favorite, it isn't a pure scalp. There is the risk of a reverse-middle... Maybe a little over a 3% chance of the "1" pushing, and less than 2% chance of a push on the "2". If you are hedging, the risk management on these is kind of interesting...and there are plenty of places that offer 4-teamers at +300, so you can actually bet quite a bit on those.

[hoobiwan]

justin +300 means you risk 100 to win 300 ?
and +300 in decimal gives what ? 4.00 ?

[chachi]

yes and yes ... they are identical

[TMoney33]

Justin -

Some good knwoledge there. Thank you. This has definitely got me thinking.

[zonedave]

I think when you are risk averse, arbing is better for a small bankroll. Especially if you get upset/sad when you lose and spew or stop betting all together.

I'm learning but I hate losing so I would rather arb then face the variance monster. lol

[allin1]

I know that rec bookmakers don't like arbers and if they suspect you are arbing they limit you or even close your account, but can that happen if you are doing "stepladder scalp" ?

[allin1]

What odds does he offer? If it is much higher than 7:1, there are plenty of ways to arb it.

can someone please explain what "higher than 7:1" means?

[That Foreign Guy]

but at what risks? that is the important thing, and that is why some guys arb as long as they can, because they are making small profits but with almost no risks.

Not getting paid by the bookie.
Not getting one half down and having to let it ride or lock in a loss.
Misunderstanding one bookie's rules and getting middled.
Tying up money that could be better used elsewhere.
Getting banned from the juicy soft lines.

[allin1]

Not getting paid by the bookie.
Not getting one half down and having to let it ride or lock in a loss.
Misunderstanding one bookie's rules and getting middled.
Tying up money that could be better used elsewhere.
Getting banned from the juicy soft lines.

usually arbers do their homework and know what they are doing. they know with what bookies to play with when it comes to having similar rules. they know where they can see the maximum bet allowed so they won't have a problem getting their bet placed, and they always have a backup plan to lay the bet somewhere else if anything goes wrong and for just a small loss 5%, maximum 10%, but this happens very rarely to professional arbers.


ayone who arbs will eventually get limited or banned from the rec bookmakers. some make multiple accounts but that really sucks if you ask me... it's not worth bothering...

[allin1]

can someone please explain what "higher than 7:1" means?

7:1 = 8.00 decimal odds?

[SparJMU]

I have a followup question for that Foreign Guy. Basically what we discussed in this thread is that if you have a bookie who pays generous parlay odds (for example 3:1 on a two team parlay), you can arbitrage those odds in a ladder format through a betting exchange. For example if I have two football games as follows:

PIT -3 (-120) BAL (+115)
NYJ -3 (-120) BUF (+115)

If I wanted to arbitrage I would parlay PIT and NYJ with the bookie $100 to win $300. I would then place a bet on BAL at +115 on the exchange, and place a second bet on BUF +115 if Baltimore loses.

Foreign Guy, you are saying that a more effective method would be to simply bet the parlay with the bookie and never hedge? Obviously there would be more variance here, but you are saying you are guaranteed to win in the long run using this method? I understand the concept, but I would have trouble blindly betting on -120 teams just because my bookie has good parlay odds.

[That Foreign Guy]

It depends on the bookie's limits and the size of your bankroll. With a very large bankroll and large limits you may make more money by arbing as described earlier.

[tukkk]

It depends on the bookie's limits and the size of your bankroll. With a very large bankroll and large limits you may make more money by arbing as described earlier.

exactly the opposite

[allin1]

Some would say that with a small bankroll it's better to arb because if you do your homework your risks are minimum. Others would say that it's a waste of time to arb for small profits if your bankroll is small, but on the other hand if you have a lot of money and you can do it, it is worth doing it even for 1% profit per arb as long as that 1% is at least 3 digits.

In the end it depends on your background, your personality, mentality and of course your bankroll but I don't think one option is better than the other as long as each of them returns profits. It's like arguing on what strategy is best for trading on financial markets: it doesn't matter if you trade long term, short term, scalp or position trading as long you make profits. There are big funds, banks, trading completely different approaches but in the end all that matters is that they make money. It's the same with betting.

[Wrecktangle]

nice thread, marking it.

[RickySteve]

nice thread, marking it.

lulz

[subs]

i'm no expert or anything, but for me if i can see that 1 side is clearly the soft side i just hit that. but obv if they both soft then fire away on both...

trouble with just arbing all the time is that u need to bet really big which:

gets u banned quicker.
is almost pointless with the smaller limit books
is a pain in the ass with moving money around.
asking for big withdraws all the time is maybe just drawing attention to urself.
and i'm prone to costly mistakes (ok maybe i'm shit at it).


so anyway i got this promotion at a C- book that is paying double on 11 leg parlays. lol

what u think my chances of getting paid if i hammer them with RR on the fav MLs and hedge elsewhere as described above?

i don't think it a very good idea to play every possible combo ATS, do u guys?

[That Foreign Guy]

It depends on the bookie's limits and the size of your bankroll. With a very large bankroll and large limits you may make more money by arbing as described earlier.

exactly the opposite

The reason I say large bankroll is because I hope you have better things to do than a 1% arb on $50 total volume.

If you have a small edge then even with full Kelly you will not be hitting the bookie's limits, so you could boost returns by arbing beyond that.

Subz - I'd just bet 11 leg round robins of the opposite of what my real bets were for the weekend at other books. If you have a terrible week on the real stuff you get some insurance money

[TMoney33]

[quote=SparJMU;12307279]For example if I have two football games as follows: PIT -3 (-120) BAL (+115) NYJ -3 (-120) BUF (+115) If I wanted to arbitrage I would parlay PIT and NYJ with the bookie $100 to win $300. I would then place a bet on BAL at +115 on the exchange, and place a second bet on BUF +115 if Baltimore loses.quote]

I like this idea. Obviously you need to find good lines, but this looks very promising. I need to to try playing one of these if I can find the right lines this weekend.

[Justin7]

i'm no expert or anything, but for me if i can see that 1 side is clearly the soft side i just hit that. but obv if they both soft then fire away on both...

trouble with just arbing all the time is that u need to bet really big which:

gets u banned quicker.
is almost pointless with the smaller limit books
is a pain in the ass with moving money around.
asking for big withdraws all the time is maybe just drawing attention to urself.
and i'm prone to costly mistakes (ok maybe i'm shit at it).


so anyway i got this promotion at a C- book that is paying double on 11 leg parlays. lol

what u think my chances of getting paid if i hammer them with RR on the fav MLs and hedge elsewhere as described above?

i don't think it a very good idea to play every possible combo ATS, do u guys?

What book? And do they pay true odds on parlays?

[subs]

firstly i'd like to thank SBR, Justin7 and Lou in particular, for fixing a problem i had with BM. Really thanks guys!

the book is betathome, and yes.