My NFL totals model is showing an extreme bias toward overs this year and has made me pull back from using it at this point. From 2002 to 2010, my model showed a small bias of 0.55 toward the over, but this season that bias is over 1.50. Therefore, the model is picking mostly overs and virtually no unders.
To overcome the 0.55 bias, I subtract 0.55 from the difference between my total and my book's total. Then I will divide this number by the standard deviation of the total population from 2002 to 2010.
With a much larger bias this season, how should I adjust? Should I subtract the difference between my total and the book's total by 1.50 instead of 0.55?
To overcome the 0.55 bias, I subtract 0.55 from the difference between my total and my book's total. Then I will divide this number by the standard deviation of the total population from 2002 to 2010.
With a much larger bias this season, how should I adjust? Should I subtract the difference between my total and the book's total by 1.50 instead of 0.55?