ATS Point Differential

[PatrickBateman]

Interested in what people take away from point spread differential betting.

What I mean is a teams + or - number versus the spread. For example, if a team beats the spread by three points three weeks straight they would be +9 ATS.

Now knowing this number for each team does a + ATS differential mean a team is underrated (since they keep beating the spread) or does it mean that they are beating the spread so much that the number will be inflated in their favor?

I could see arguments being made for both sides, but would like to know what others think. This could be an effective strategy in helping to handicap games. BOL All

[evo34]

Some older data: http://twominutewarning.com/xxcsm.htm

[larco15]

useful in basketball. football is a different beast, especially NFL

[cyberbabble]

Consider the same method for NFL totals. Projected points (from Justin7 I think) for a favorite is (Total line/2) + (point spread/2) and for the dog is (Total/2) - (point spread/2). Calculate actual points vs projected points for last few games. If you don't want to build a complicated model, look for a game where both teams have been scoring more than expected or a game with two teams scoring less than expected.

I built a simple model for totals, last year, based on this concept plus a couple of other factors. It was a small winner. Won 54% on an average of two games per week. I'm not doing it this year. It was too time consuming using Excel, I don't have much time this year and the results don't seem to be worth the time required.

It's promising enough that I will work on it and maybe get better results next year.

[RickySteve]

I haven't studied it, but someone I respect a lot used this sort of strategy to profitably trade in the NBA. That was years ago however. I'd be surprised if the market hasn't adjusted.