Parlay Betting Strategies

[InIt2Win]

I've searched the forums for information on parlay strategies and it's coming back with irrelevant results. Can you guys give me some tips and the names of good parlay betting strategies?

Thanks.

[ncsubowen]

The #1 parlay strategy is.... Don't.

Seriously. It's fun to throw a couple of bucks here and there, and if you get within a team or two take the opportunity for guaranteed money and hedge, but it's really a crapshoot.

Good luck.

[donkson]

but it's really a crapshoot.

So if you have an edge in two events and you parlay them, your edge disappears?

Makes perfect sense.

[ncsubowen]

If you have an edge, but how many people on this forum are honestly making +EV bets? And even then, you are still dropping your win chance.

For a seasoned bettor, looking at all of your angles and making a good parlay is possible, but you don't see it frequently, and it certainly isn't good advice for someone that's new to it.

[InIt2Win]

For a seasoned bettor, looking at all of your angles and making a good parlay is possible, but you don't see it frequently, and it certainly isn't good advice for someone that's new to it.

How do you know this?

I think schooling someone on the basic's of parlay betting is good advice. Once they learn the basic's of this strategy and others then it is up to them to decide on their own if it's the strategy they want to implement.

[Inspirited]

You need to find correlations that give you and edge.

[donkson]

If you have an edge, but how many people on this forum are honestly making +EV bets? And even then, you are still dropping your win chance.

So if you had a 10% edge on a bet that only won 10% you wouldn't bet it?

[That Foreign Guy]

I'll throw down some parlays when I have more than one bet (obv I am +EV) at a given book, but the Kelly optimal sizes are so small for most bets that it is tough to do and have good bankroll management. So I just take them from my entertainment budget not my bankroll.

Correlated parlays are different beasts altogether.

[NHL Pro Capper]

Easy, bet favorite + over, dog + under, try to get ~3:1 odds+. 1 unit = 1% of Bankroll, ex. $1,000 bankroll, you are betting $10 per correlated parlay. Been using this for a long time and doing very well. Applies to MLB, NHL mostly. GL.

PS. Don't ever bet more then 3 games on a parlay if you want to pick a bunch of money lines. The house edge dramatically increases after 3 per slip.

[Raven66]

I only do two team fav parlay's..........works for most of the time.

[WendysRox]

this has got to be the worst example of the htt helping people become better gamblers.

Personally, I've been doing a lot of open ended teasers and parlays myself, so I wouldn't mind a little discussion from the pros on this topic. But the, "don't do it unless it's profitable" responses are absolutely worthless. Sorry, OP, looks like you caught them on a bad day.

[GarbageMan]

you obv havent read the replies properly wendy. great bit of advice has been mentioned twice

[sj9287]

To answer the man's question:

I personally only do parlays, I do about 100-200 worth and usually make my money back and more. There are a lot of variations on how to bet but my strategy is (3) 3 team (1 is for college football strictly), (2) 4 team, (1) 7 team bet with teams I like (1) big money line bet with all favorites usually 6-7 teams, and (1) Round Robin. I tend to mix college and pro's but I do separate as well. The real strategy comes in the fact of not having one team be able to take down all or most of your bets, even if its a "lock". But you just need to get rid of emotion, and bet on the facts and ones that have a relatively high percentage of hitting. With parlays the degree of certainty is the key not maximizing your profit. Don't do too much, only bet on teams you know, and you should make a profit.

[Romanov]

To answer the man's question: I personally only do parlays, I do about 100-200 worth and usually make my money back and more. There are a lot of variations on how to bet but my strategy is (3) 3 team (1 is for college football strictly), (2) 4 team, (1) 7 team bet with teams I like (1) big money line bet with all favorites usually 6-7 teams, and (1) Round Robin. I tend to mix college and pro's but I do separate as well. The real strategy comes in the fact of not having one team be able to take down all or most of your bets, even if its a "lock". But you just need to get rid of emotion, and bet on the facts and ones that have a relatively high percentage of hitting. With parlays the degree of certainty is the key not maximizing your profit. Don't do too much, only bet on teams you know, and you should make a profit.

You joined in 09 and waited over 2 years to post that?

[Pancho sanza]

You joined in 09 and waited over 2 years to post that?

[uva3021]

Dog ML parlays in NFL are money, i.e. Sunday play Carolina, Tampa Bay, Minnesota ML, guaranteed winner just you watch

[donkson]

lol.

[SparJMU]

To answer the man's question:

I personally only do parlays, I do about 100-200 worth and usually make my money back and more. There are a lot of variations on how to bet but my strategy is (3) 3 team (1 is for college football strictly), (2) 4 team, (1) 7 team bet with teams I like (1) big money line bet with all favorites usually 6-7 teams, and (1) Round Robin. I tend to mix college and pro's but I do separate as well. The real strategy comes in the fact of not having one team be able to take down all or most of your bets, even if its a "lock". But you just need to get rid of emotion, and bet on the facts and ones that have a relatively high percentage of hitting. With parlays the degree of certainty is the key not maximizing your profit. Don't do too much, only bet on teams you know, and you should make a profit.

This is terrible, terrible advice. Why would someone write this?

[ZOLAS]

So if you have an edge in two events and you parlay them, your edge disappears? Makes perfect sense.

I bet you could do a google search and get some mathmatic answers to this question. It isn't as simple as 2 events that you both have a +ev, therefore bestter to bet parlays. If i remeber the numbers correctly from an article saw years ago, your winning percentage (based on a -110 bet) would have to be pretty high to fair better with parlays rather than betting your games straight up.

[Pancho sanza]

No need to parlay unless you can bet the events straight up.

Only exceptions are to get around limits and correlation.

[jer_33]

There's a great site in Canada called Protip that follows the Lottery Sports Gamings system (Proline). You can only bet minimum 3 game parlays - so there's a lot of great information ragarding parlay strategies. Busy site too.

Coorelations and edge plays are the way to go, but again - you'll lose more tickets than you win, but hopefully you're making money.

Personally, I've used 2 game parlays if I like a couple of plays and am looking to increase the pay-out a bit. Bet both straight-up with standard bets, and lay a little on the parlay looking for some icing.

I've also used the round robin strategy if you like 4 outcomes - 4x3-game tickets laying slightly more on the higher prob tickets.

1-2-3
1-2-4
2-3-4
1-3-4

Jer

[vyomguy]

striaght bets or parlays....u need to have the knack of picking winners.

You cant bet high juice ML SU...have to take it in a parlay.

Dont listen to all these idiots who say dont do parlay...listen to your gut and go with it.

[Pancho sanza]

striaght bets or parlays....u need to have the knack of picking winners.

You cant bet high juice ML SU...have to take it in a parlay.

Dont listen to all these idiots who say dont do parlay...listen to your gut and go with it.

Possibly the worst post ever.

[InIt2Win]

There's a great site in Canada called Protip that follows the Lottery Sports Gamings system (Proline). You can only bet minimum 3 game parlays - so there's a lot of great information ragarding parlay strategies. Busy site too.

Coorelations and edge plays are the way to go, but again - you'll lose more tickets than you win, but hopefully you're making money.

Personally, I've used 2 game parlays if I like a couple of plays and am looking to increase the pay-out a bit. Bet both straight-up with standard bets, and lay a little on the parlay looking for some icing.

I've also used the round robin strategy if you like 4 outcomes - 4x3-game tickets laying slightly more on the higher prob tickets.

1-2-3
1-2-4
2-3-4
1-3-4

Jer

I've been doing some research on correlated parlay's and I am testing it out on tonight's games. I'll be diving into round robins in the next couple of weeks.

[Allblacks]

I did different sports, different strategies and now for 3 month approx I'm betting only doubles. It works so far, I"m making little profit, usually I take 1 event with 1.9 odds and other around 1.5-1.6 which makes 3.0 odds average. Need to pick well matches and adjust handicap points or totals, but it could work, also you need a solid bankroll. I'm usually betting on NHL, NFL, college football, AHL, some European hockey leagues

[STAX]

I have a pretty good strategy I use for parlays. Basically I only bet moneylines, and I stick to mostly underdogs, although I will sprinkle in the small favorite here and there and the occasional big favorite if I think they cant lose. So, I am betting small and losing most of the time, big I am looking for that big score.

I am looking for value... I am looking for 50/50 type games where the underdog is +200 or higher. I am looking for big underdogs (+400 or higher) where I think they have a 1/4 or better chance. Anytime you can find a game where your estimate of the dog winning is decently higher than the odds indicate.

For example, the easiest game I picked all season was the Stanford/Mich St Rose Bowl. Michigan State was +200, and this was about as close of a 50/50 game as I could imagine. At +200, the book is saying Michigan St will will 1/3 times, so even if you handicap it at 60/40 in favor of Stanford, there is still value there. Another pick I liked a lot was Central Florida over Baylor at +575!!! I felt this was a 50/50 game, or at worst a 67/33 game. At +575, the book thinks CF will will win 15% of the time.... such huge value here!

One of my bigger payouts this year was a two teamer in the NFL, Arizona (+450) over Seattle and NYG (+380) over Detroit. 1 unit payed 25 units.

Be selective, and keep it to 2-6 teams...

[Jayvegas420]

I did different sports, different strategies and now for 3 month approx I'm betting only doubles. It works so far, I"m making little profit, usually I take 1 event with 1.9 odds and other around 1.5-1.6 which makes 3.0 odds average. Need to pick well matches and adjust handicap points or totals, but it could work, also you need a solid bankroll. I'm usually betting on NHL, NFL, college football, AHL, some European hockey leagues

YOu joined with the sole purpose of bumping this thread?

I have a pretty good strategy I use for parlays. Basically I only bet moneylines, and I stick to mostly underdogs, although I will sprinkle in the small favorite here and there and the occasional big favorite if I think they cant lose. So, I am betting small and losing most of the time, big I am looking for that big score.

I am looking for value... I am looking for 50/50 type games where the underdog is +200 or higher. I am looking for big underdogs (+400 or higher) where I think they have a 1/4 or better chance. Anytime you can find a game where your estimate of the dog winning is decently higher than the odds indicate.

For example, the easiest game I picked all season was the Stanford/Mich St Rose Bowl. Michigan State was +200, and this was about as close of a 50/50 game as I could imagine. At +200, the book is saying Michigan St will will 1/3 times, so even if you handicap it at 60/40 in favor of Stanford, there is still value there. Another pick I liked a lot was Central Florida over Baylor at +575!!! I felt this was a 50/50 game, or at worst a 67/33 game. At +575, the book thinks CF will will win 15% of the time.... such huge value here!

One of my bigger payouts this year was a two teamer in the NFL, Arizona (+450) over Seattle and NYG (+380) over Detroit. 1 unit payed 25 units.

Be selective, and keep it to 2-6 teams...

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This guy is awesome!


fukkin Auburn

[Sawyer]

Parlay Bets are GREAT if you're arbing. It's a good way to overcome betting limits. Odds for 2nd leg may change but line movement is more likely to be in your favor. In addition, make sure 1st leg game is not a baseball game that can be delayed because 1st leg must be completed before start of 2nd leg.

[Blax0r]

Parlay Bets are GREAT if you're arbing. It's a good way to overcome betting limits. Odds for 2nd leg may change but line movement is more likely to be in your favor. In addition, make sure 1st leg game is not a baseball game that can be delayed because 1st leg must be completed before start of 2nd leg.

Strong words of wisdom; I've never considered this before.

[localdallasbook]

I think the +ML is a pretty good parlay strategy.

[dyermaker]

I am trying to figure out if parlays would be more profitable than singles myself. First let me provide the info. Let's say I have a % 66 winning rate in basketball games with odds of 1.90 (-111.11 or 9/10). Now would making parlays of 2, 3 or 4 games with round robin increase my profit? I googled a bit but did not find any parlay optimizer or sth in the web. Yes I know I can be rich with % 66 hit rate playing singles but I am just a greedy bastard. Any opinion would be appreciated.

[Cookie Monster]

Parlay is a bet used wrongly by most bettors. It effectively means risk x amount on bet 1; if it wins, risk all (risked + winnings) on bet 2 (and if bet 1 losses, risk 0 on bet 2). That is obvious, but think again: Why to use such bet sizing instead of risking the normal bet size on each straight bet? If the +EV is the same, it is always better a -110 than a +264, as the parlay has a worse growth tendency. And you are forced to place at one book, so cannot shop for a better price. However, there are some good reasons for the parlay.


The most common mistake is parlaying any number of bets without any reason, just hoping for a big payout. If evey bet is -EV, parlaying them compounds the disadvantage. Many squares parlay lots of sides or a few +ML, which amounts to buying a lottery ticket. And when the first legs hit, they often hedge the bet. That is stupid, if you want to get out of the bet after 4 legs, just parlay 4 legs instead of hedging and paying huge vig both sides on last legs.


Other bettors like to parlay many large favorite moneylines, getting a payout close to +100. In their mind it is a sure winner, as only a huge upset would lose the bet. Human mind likes to simplify things, and disregarding small posibilities is one way to achieve it. But in reality such small possibilities accumulate, and the bet losses most often than not.


Then when is good to parlay? As I said, betting straight wagers is usually the best way (Kelly criterion includes a small parlay when making two simultaneous bets, but usually parlay size is much smaller than straight wagers). But there are a few special cases when parlay is worth it:


- Freeplay. Many sportsbooks give bonus freeplays. The best use of these is a big +ML or a parlay which amounts to the same (3-legs pay +595 or +600). You can place all the 8 possible parlay combinations, extracting 75% of value of free play (notice that some books do not like taking all sides of a bet, so you may be flagged). Alternatively, you can place it all in a 3-leg with staged hedge, perfect for MLB. An early + afternoon + evening parlay can be hedged game by game (again, try not to hedge in the same book of parlay).


- Circumventing limits. If you place an open parlay for the max and the first 2 legs hit, then you have an open leg amounting to 2.64x the limit.


- Cover: If you play at square books offering enough off prices, you may last longer parlaying them than betting straight. Most books know that sharps usually pound their off prices in a straight wager, and sharp detection software searches for that. And books seldom move the lines on a parlay bet, while they often move on any max straight bet. In Las Vegas, you can place more bets parlaying an off price without looking like you are pounding it, and with better chance of line not moving.


- Correlation: Parlay payout assumes that all legs of the bet are independent. However, in some cases they are correlated (if leg A hits, there is an increased possibility of B hits too). A typical example is NHL puckline + total. If the favorite covers the -1.5, there is a large chance the game went over 5.5 goals (only exceptions are 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 5-0, 3-1 and 4-1 scores). So, if you are allowed to parlay them, the bet is +EV, even when both legs are indepently -EV. However, most books do not allow bets with such high correlation (and the few that allow them are scam books). But there are a few correlated bets still allowed. For example, in last game of season, two teams alive for last playoff spot. One plays early, the other later. If the early team losses, the later gets into playoffs with a win, otherwise later team is out. So, parlaying early team loss + later team win is correlated (later team moneyline will go up after early team loss, but you have locked it already). You can also parlay early team wins + later team loss, as later team will not play hard if already eliminated.

[bihon]

I am trying to figure out if parlays would be more profitable than singles myself. First let me provide the info. Let's say I have a % 66 winning rate in basketball games with odds of 1.90 (-111.11 or 9/10). Now would making parlays of 2, 3 or 4 games with round robin increase my profit? I googled a bit but did not find any parlay optimizer or sth in the web. Yes I know I can be rich with % 66 hit rate playing singles but I am just a greedy bastard. Any opinion would be appreciated.

If you have a consistent edge a correct parlay ALWAYS pays better off.
If you can't do the math to find the right one (e.g. 3x2 parlay for a group of 3 matches), you can always run some simulations. It is less prone to mistakes.

[bihon]

Let's say I have a % 66 winning rate in basketball games with odds of 1.90 (-111.11 or 9/10).

For your particular case, a simple math using your data and playing basic two game parlays proves the fact:

0.66^2=0.4356 winning chance with 1.9^2-1= 2.61 payout
In other words out of 20000 plays making 10000 parlays you will have 4356 winning ones with 4356*2.61-(10000-4356)=11369-5644=5725 *2 units=11450 units.

Playing singles only: 20000*0.66=13200 winners * 0.9 - 6800 losers=5080 units

So, this simple parlay provides you with 125% more profit. Finding the most optimal one is another story.
Also keep in mind that parlays also return larger drawdowns, which should be seriously taken into consideration.

[dyermaker]

Thank you for your reply. I never thought the math would be so simple. This was very helpful.

For your particular case, a simple math using your data and playing basic two game parlays proves the fact:

0.66^2=0.4356 winning chance with 1.9^2-1= 2.61 payout
In other words out of 20000 plays making 10000 parlays you will have 4356 winning ones with 4356*2.61-(10000-4356)=11369-5644=5725 *2 units=11450 units.

Playing singles only: 20000*0.66=13200 winners * 0.9 - 6800 losers=5080 units

So, this simple parlay provides you with 125% more profit. Finding the most optimal one is another story.
Also keep in mind that parlays also return larger drawdowns, which should be seriously taken into consideration.