HOW bookies figure out how much action to layoff!!

[byronbb]

A player's risk management has zero relevance to the book.

I was always under the impression coinflipping vs a very large bankroll was -ev not 0ev, since variance eventually wipes out the smaller of the two. Would this not magnify for -ev betting?

[McFly86]

I was always under the impression coinflipping vs a very large bankroll was -ev not 0ev, since variance eventually wipes out the smaller of the two. Would this not magnify for -ev betting?

No. This is wrong for the same reason that there is no validity to Martingaling.

[donjuan]

I was always under the impression coinflipping vs a very large bankroll was -ev not 0ev, since variance eventually wipes out the smaller of the two. Would this not magnify for -ev betting?

It's 0EV, -EG. EG is not zero sum, EV is.

[maheldman]

yes, but rarely are totals a "true" 50/50 play. bookmakers come fairly close in the long run, but for each game, if you were to check the game's score after ending, that score would be the true total, to which 50% would go over, and 50% would go under. its pretty rare that they get it on the number. That's why proper handicapping is so important. You can find an edge or an improper total and take advantage of that in the long run. TWO WORDS- REGRESSION ANALYSIS. become friends with it.