Need help hedging a Future

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  • SparJMU
    SBR MVP
    • 02-18-10
    • 1648

    #1
    Need help hedging a Future
    Hypothetically speaking:

    Let's say when the Cardinals were nearly eliminated from the Playoffs with 3 weeks left in the season I placed a bet at +100000, $25 to win $25,000 on STL to win the World Series. Heading into the playoffs those odds are between +1000 and +1500 depending on where you look.

    Let's say I didn't want to risk an all or nothing but, so I wanted to hedge my bet and guarantee some profit, what is the optimal way to go about this?

    My initial thought is to place series wagers against the Cardinals, starting with the Phillies $3,000 to win $1,000. If the Cardinals get knocked out right off the bat, I am up $1,000 (less the inital $25 risked).

    Any advice would be appreciated.

    THANKS!!!
  • tomcowley
    SBR MVP
    • 10-01-07
    • 1129

    #2
    Fading them on the series prices should get you out for far less juice than betting the board on futures, assuming you have outs for that.
    Comment
    • SparJMU
      SBR MVP
      • 02-18-10
      • 1648

      #3
      Thanks Tom. I was trying some numbers after I posted and realized betting WS Odds was not a good way to approach it. I edited my post accordingly.

      So you think going series by series is the best way to go? Using estimates of -300 against PHI and an initial bet of $3,000 to win $1,000, then -150 in the NLCS and WS, I would only profit exactly $1,000 from the entire playoffs. Effective, but I was hoping for something more. If the books are offering STL at +1400, then a bet against STL at -1400 would net me $1,657 risk free. I was hoping there would be a way to get me closer to that figure.
      Comment
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