Probability/Pricing Question

[Cicima6709]

This is a question for hockey bets, i am curious how accurate my system is with the actual math that is used to calculate the odds.

Lets say player A has scored a point in 36 of 82 games. In 7 of those 36 games, he had 2 points.
Lets say player B has scored a point in 54 of 82 games. In 14 of those 54 games, he had 2 points. In 9 of those 54 games, he had 3 points.

If the a bet was to be "Player A vs Player B" for points scored in an individual game, what SHOULD the line be? And how can i calculate the line, obviously assuming that if they both get the same amount of points, the bet pushes.

So how can i figure out what edge Player B has and what the - odds should be for him to have more points in a given game.

Thanks a lot!

[jgilmartin]

Have you considered the teams (and starting goalies) they will be be playing against?

[Cicima6709]

Yes, in my system i actually look at several variables (season performance/last 10 games performance/player vs goalie/team matchups), i account for everything when i make my own lines.

However, i have never actually created lines using a mathematical approach in terms of what the line should mathematically be. I just attribute several points to show how big the gap is between player performances in the above categories, and make my bets based on which player matchups have more of these points that i attribute. But now i am curious to see if there is a mathematical approach i can take in determining what the odds were based on the above stats.

Can anyone help me w/ that?

[u21c3f6]

... But now i am curious to see if there is a mathematical approach i can take in determining what the odds were based on the above stats.

Can anyone help me w/ that?

See attached spreadsheet. AB Goals.xls If I understand you correctly and assuming that all else is equal or at least a wash, the attached is how I would go about comparing your figures which results in A winning approx 18.2%, B winning approx 47.8% and a push approx 34.0% of the time or approx -262 odds for B.

Joe.

[Cicima6709]

See attached spreadsheet. [ATTACH]32903[/ATTACH] If I understand you correctly and assuming that all else is equal or at least a wash, the attached is how I would go about comparing your figures which results in A winning approx 18.2%, B winning approx 47.8% and a push approx 34.0% of the time or approx -262 odds for B.

Joe.

Thank you very much!

I'll look this over and see if i have any questions. I appreciate it.

So in theory, if Player A and Player B have the same exact season infinite times, and you bet the -262 every game, you will break even over the infinite time. I'm going to try to run this on some of my own lines that i created without using this probability, really curious how accurate i have been. I have had by far my most success w/ NHL/MLB props, so i'm hoping i can turn this into another tool to use for judging when i have the edge.