Teaser Strategy: Extremely Square or Somewhat Sharp?

[DanL32]

Say LSU -6 was my favorite bet for the week
Other bets I like are ARK 11.5, UGA 9.5, and SMU -21.5

Would teasing LSU (night game) with each one individually make any sense at all??

LSU pk and Ark +17.5 1u to win 1
LSU pk and UGA -3.5 1u to win 1
LSU pk and SMU -15.5 1u to win 1
LSU pk and FSU +8 1u to win 1


If all 4 games are alive by LSU gametime, put a 1.5 units on WVU +6.Potential outcomes are:+5.5u, +2.5u,-2.5u
If 3 games are alive, put 1 unit on WVU +6--outcomes are +3u, +1u, -3u
2 or 1 still alive- do whatever, at least you still get LSU at a better line


Obviously those units are not sharp, I was just pulling those numbers out of my ass. But what I just don't see LSU losing the game, so unless the other games really screw up I think its hard to lose money...right?

Am I kind of on to something at all? Or am I just being lured into an ultimate sucker bet? Is there any ways to make teasers a non-sucker bet or is it just never worth it?


Thanks fellas

[tomcowley]

So you're asking if betting LSU ML at -241, comboed with some other stupid shit that has to win too, is better than just betting LSU on the moneyline at -210?

[ThaWoj]

yeah maybe just bet the LSU ML if you're really confident or buy down to -3 or -2.5 or something so you don't have to lay as much. then if u still wanna play ur other games possilby do a 5 team teaser combining everything just for kicks. on top of that then i would even do a 5-team parlay in case all your teams cover straight up. but only for an extremely small amount.

idk, thats what i'd do but the last 2 things i said are kind of just a greed/fun thing. i'm not a flat bettor so i'd probaby put 2x on LSU -3 or ML and then .75x on the teaser and .25x on the parlay

[Romanov]

1st of all, you don't tease a -6 favorite. That is a no no

[DanL32]

Ok guys thanks.. I'm a straight-betting money management guy and I was just wondering if I was at all on something. Preciate the input.

[suicidekings]

Am I kind of on to something at all? Or am I just being lured into an ultimate sucker bet? Is there any ways to make teasers a non-sucker bet or is it just never worth it?

Let's put it this way, you're not the first or the last person to play around with teasers/parlays trying to find a system that's profitable. Teasers/Parlays are by nature harder to win because you're relying on multiple outcomes, and the bottom line is the sportsbooks make a KILLING on them for good reason. Research the term "Theoretical Hold" in relation to how it applies to parlays and teasers, then read about "Push Probabilities" and how they affect the value of each point in a spread in the NFL. Once you wrap your head around those two terms, you won't bother with teasers.

The short answer is that sometimes teasing offers you an opportunity to profit, but the large majority of the time you'd just be better off playing a game straight. If you like LSU, just bet LSU.

[donjuan]

Teasers/Parlays are by nature harder to win because you're relying on multiple outcomes, and the bottom line is the sportsbooks make a KILLING on them for good reason. Research the term "Theoretical Hold" in relation to how it applies to parlays and teasers, then read about "Push Probabilities" and how they affect the value of each point in a spread in the NFL. Once you wrap your head around those two terms, you won't bother with teasers.

Lulz I can't believe you pretend to be knowledgeable.

[Peregrine Stoop]

1st of all, you don't tease a -6 favorite. That is a no no

not always true

[Peregrine Stoop]

then read about "Push Probabilities" and how they affect the value of each point in a spread in the NFL. Once you wrap your head around those two terms, you won't bother with teasers.

Once most of us read about 'push probabilities', we end up teasing much more often in selected spots.