Am I the only one...

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  • Justin7
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-31-06
    • 8577

    #1
    Am I the only one...
    who comes up with a model that hits 80%, only to find out I reversed EVERY SINGLE SPREAD?

    *sigh*
  • dcbt
    SBR High Roller
    • 04-04-08
    • 185

    #2
    Originally posted by Justin7
    who comes up with a model that hits 80%, only to find out I reversed EVERY SINGLE SPREAD?

    *sigh*
    you could just fade your model.
    Comment
    • gummo
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 09-04-06
      • 6297

      #3
      it all comes back to even.
      Comment
      • dwaechte
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 08-27-07
        • 5481

        #4
        No, mine was 82%.

        JK. Tough break Justin.
        Comment
        • Data
          SBR MVP
          • 11-27-07
          • 2236

          #5
          Originally posted by Justin7
          who comes up with a model that hits 80%, only to find out I reversed EVERY SINGLE SPREAD?

          *sigh*
          Once, I ran MOV regression in Excel and got R Square 0.99. That was VERY unexpected. I quickly realized I accidently set "Constant is Zero".
          Comment
          • MrX
            SBR MVP
            • 01-10-06
            • 1540

            #6
            My MLB model was showing extremely exciting results for totals. It turned out a programming error was dropping the 1/2 runs from the past totals (9.5 turning into 9).

            It was interesting how shockingly easy totals that were off by 1/2 run were to beat.
            Comment
            • Dark Horse
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 12-14-05
              • 13764

              #7
              I spent hours, not very long ago, setting up a motivational grid, congratulating myself in the process, only to realize I had been using the SU settings, instead of the ATS ones.
              Comment
              • Peep
                SBR MVP
                • 06-23-08
                • 2295

                #8
                Yeah, on access when I played horses I used to always get the reverse of what I wanted in first, just to excite myself and create hope in the great wilderness.

                On a sadder note, one year I lost 12K on RHE's because I added a year wrong in my model (which covers five years). This put my numbers off the books with certain totals. I was losing, over 300 bets, KNEW something was wrong, but the problem was well hidden in early computations of the data.......

                That one still pisses me off four years later.
                Comment
                • Art Vandeleigh
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-31-06
                  • 1494

                  #9
                  In the real world, they hold design reviews (such as PDR, CDR) before going to prototype and then production. No man is an island?
                  Comment
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