As of Sep.12 How strong is the pinny lean?

[Winner_13]

I think JUSTIN7 explains it well:

Offshore lean:

"You are thinking about betting on the Minnesota/Kansas City game. Your local bookie has KC -2.5. In Vegas, everyone is at -2 or -2.5. Pinnacle is at +3 +105, which is a no-juice line of +3 +101. They are begging people to bet the +3. Pinnacle's "lean" suggests that smart players are betting on K.C., since their price for KC is "off market" compared to Vegas.

Pinny's lean used to be golden - you used to be able to play all of Veags when a game like this was off that much. It is nowhere near as strong as the past; now you have to look at the Oly/Cris lean as well. Oly is at -2.5 -120/+2.5 +100, while Cris is at +3 -125/-3 +105. These numbers together suggest that the "offshore lean" likes K.C. If you can get KC -2 -110 (which is available at the Harrahs/Caesars books in Vegas), it is scalpable.

In the past, guys made a fortune betting any game that was 5 cents off of Pinnacle's no-juice line. you can still do well, but you need to look at the broader offshore markets to get an accurate read."- justin7

...since every1 copies pinnacle mostly, the market as a whole has become more efficient.
the pinny lean definitely doesnt work for me as much as it used to. others agree/disagree?

some positive and useful feedback is much appreciated

[Peregrine Stoop]

go through a db or start your own and find out for yourself. If it's good, why would you want to share?

[MonkeyF0cker]

...since every1 copies pinnacle mostly, the market as a whole has become more efficient.

Umm. How does a market become more efficient with less participants?

[Winner_13]

i dont know why the pinny lean is not as successful. justin7 agrees with that as well.

can any1 tell me y?

[MonkeyF0cker]

That's a great thread.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/41046-pinnacle-lean-greek-lean-syndicated-play.html

Justin can't even figure out the no-vig line of (a dog/long odds) in it.

You sure you wanna take his advice there as gospel anyway?

[Winner_13]

monkey..so yr saying pinny lean is just as sharp as it was 5 yrs ago?

[MonkeyF0cker]

No. I think I've stated my positions pretty clearly.

1. A market with less participants is not more efficient.

2. You should probably not trust the opinion of someone about the efficiency of a market when that person cannot properly determine a no-vig line in the same post.

[Winner_13]

ok thxs for clearing that up.

so you dont have any opinion on the pinny lean being less profitable?

[Justin7]

That's a great thread.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/41046-pinnacle-lean-greek-lean-syndicated-play.html

Justin can't even figure out the no-vig line of (a dog/long odds) in it.

You sure you wanna take his advice there as gospel anyway?

Monkey,

Lay it out. Spell out the example where you think I erred. I hope you have a better example than a thread from 4 years ago... Are you joining the Thremp school of stalking? After showing this example, would you be so kind as to educate everyone here on the correct way to price a no-vig line?

[durito]

Monkey,

Lay it out. Spell out the example where you think I erred. I hope you have a better example than a thread from 4 years ago... Are you joining the Thremp school of stalking? After showing this example, would you be so kind as to educate everyone here on the correct way to price a no-vig line?

[MonkeyF0cker]

That's the thread where the OP pulled the quote from, Mr. Defensive.

And are you insinuating that this.. "Pinnacle is at +3 +105, which is a no-juice line of +3 +101." could EVER be correct?!?!?!

[MonkeyF0cker]

Justin,

Do you ever admit that you made a mistake? EVER?

I mean.. that's as blatant as it gets. And yet you still deny it. LOL.

[Justin7]

That's the thread where the OP pulled the quote from, Mr. Defensive.

And are you insinuating that this.. "Pinnacle is at +3 +105, which is a no-juice line of +3 +101." could EVER be correct?!?!?!

Ok, you got me. I was wrong when I posted quickly 4 years ago. It's a pretty big blanket statement to infer that I cannot calculate a no-vig line from one mistake.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Do we have to go there, Justin? Not only are you subtracting rather than adding vig, but you're just splitting it right down the middle in the first place...

It certainly seems to be a greater issue than simply using the wrong mathematical operator.

[Justin7]

Do we have to go there, Justin? Not only are you subtracting rather than adding vig, but you're just splitting it right down the middle in the first place...

It certainly seems to be a greater issue than simply using the wrong mathematical operator.

Ignoring a sign error... On spreads near Pick, it is a good approximation. A majority of posters will get confused by the more thorough, precise calculation. But if you like, I can do a vid on it, and dedicate it to you.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I have faith that you've finally figured it out four years later.

If you've dedicated a video to me before, I wouldn't know.

[Dark Horse]

i dont know why the pinny lean is not as successful. justin7 agrees with that as well.

can any1 tell me y?

Camouflage.

If Pinny wouldn't mix things up and cover up their tracks the whole world would be getting rich of their infamous lean by now.

[wantitall4moi]

ahh and the math on math crime its a shame. truth is I dont know if you can define a no vig line on a book by book basis. No matter what you think the 'proper' way to do it is. Books shade their lines, end of story, and thus by shading a line they can do whatever they want with the vig. Seriously if a game 'should' be -130/+130, and they throw up a standard -120/+110 then what? you are then trying to determine the no vig line on a line that is invalid in the first place. Until you can make up a line that is better than the books, which most guys dont have a prayer of doing, that is better suited as a prediction of win probability then you cannot determine what books are doing. Same as with spreads. You have books painted -4 at vigs of -110/-110, -105/-105, -107/-105 whatever. If the REAL line should be -5 or even -6 what does that do to the vig on a -4 spread? And if a book throws up -4.5 +104/-112 then what? If the real line should be +/-6 does getting a few pennies on a 4.5 mean that much? Some guys will say youre getting a half point for 2 to 7 cents. Then they determine what a half point is worth at 4 and then go from there. So they go through all that bullshit and the number isnt right in the first place.

Now I know guys who used to dedicate themselves to looking at Pinny lines and where they not only had more or less vig but even a half point or so and tried to see if they were right or wrong in that shading. Now I have the results but they arent really valid either because we really dont know their exposure on a line by line basis. So trying to determine an overall assumption just doesnt work. Today or 10 years ago.

I commented on it somewhere before. What makes a line TRUE? The book? The result? The guys betting into it? A combination of all of it? When you cant prove it then it is best to think all possibilities are valid. Think of the cat in the box I guess, I am sure the math geeks love that one.

Guys that look at lines for anything more than how much they get paid or lose when it hits or doesnt will drive themselves crazy. Thats why people all lose now. Everyone is too busy chasing steam or trying to follow someone they think might be smarter than them and getting the best number as soon as they can when that persons play becomes known. Guys that cant think for themselves or bet a 'virgin' line are doomed. They are also the ones who come up with the most convoluted and cryptic reasoning for why they play something. rather than just saying the truth...this guy or that bunch of guys bet it and I followed them.

The final point is a line isnt meant to be a prediction is it meant to confuse and make people question and eventually even out the action the best way it can. people forgot that a long time ago. Worrying about conspiracies and whether books are 'gambling' or hoping a team wins over another. And if the 'public' is right or the 'sharps' are right. Since these posts always come up I can see the books are doing the right thing. And the smarter people think they are the better it works, because most of the time the 'smart' guys simply end up outsmarting themselves.

[AlwaysDrawing]

Ignoring a sign error... On spreads near Pick, it is a good approximation. A majority of posters will get confused by the more thorough, precise calculation. But if you like, I can do a vid on it, and dedicate it to you.

I hope I too can one day have a Justin7 video dedicated to me.

[Winner_13]

so does any1 know y the pinny lean doesnt work like it used to?

[antifoil]

yeah do the video. i want to see how you say his username.