I am fairly new to betting but i have a few questions on middling. My game plan this season is to only middle ncaa and nfl halfs. I currently have 4 books to work with and would only take numbers that are most likely to hit (or so i think)..pk and +1/2..2.5 and 3...or 3 and 3.5..maybe 6.5 to 7.5's as well. I only take each side when it is -110 or better on each side..so it gives me 10 to 1 odds if i push..(laying 50 dollars vig to win 500) My questions are. 1. is this profitable? 2. how often do these spreads actually push? i appreciate any comments..also iv done this for 2 weeks in the preseason and already had 14 middle opportunities but only hit 1 time(i figure its because its preseason)..i was told these probably hit 20percent of the time tho..thoughts?
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I dont know about half time stuff but in the NCAA strictly, if you got the very best number possible then it would be slightly profitable. But very slightly. Problem is you arent going to have access to every single game at every single book to do it. So you wont be able to bet them all. And that is where you start to become a loser.
middling in the NFL is a slow painful death. you'll hit a few here and there to keep you going but you eventually go broke.
Best approach is try it and if you get a profit the first month or so cash out.
Or if you really feel daring bet MLs and try to buy them back, arbitrage. If it moves enough to middle, it is going to move enough to arb. At least with that approach you know you are going to get something. You cant win both but you lock in something. Problem with all these approaches is there just arent that many games. Not like baseball where it is daily.Comment -
"Best approach is try it and if you get a profit the first month or so cash out."
Sounds like a bad idea to rely on luck to make money? Sounds - ev and a lot like gambling.Comment -
Thanks for the reply..when you say a slow painful death with middles, do you mean trying to middle a whole game spread or halftime spread..because one would think hitting a halftime middle is a much better chance then a full game..no?Comment -
Thats why you try it short term. If I had money for every angle or formula or theory or 'model' that worked due to luck and for a short period of time before it went down in flames I could have got out of the game a lot earlier.Originally posted by Nookx
Half the shit people use now isnt valid, but it wins or seems to win because it has spurts of successes and its 'success' is mostly due to dumb luck than anything else.
People just dont bet enough for it to catch up. I bet sports as my sole source of income for about 15 years, I puts a lot of money through the windows and made a lot of bets, not many one way, but more than most people probably. And I can tell you there isnt any plan that works other than making yourself the book maker.Comment
