Would this betting technique work long term?

[Brady2Moss]

I would like to know if anyone has put this theory to test...

Basically, take any sport, NBA/NFL/MLB/NHL, and find the best moneyline or ATS team and bet them every game...

For example Tampa Rays are the best money line team in MLB...

If I bet them every game for the rest of the season will I profit?

[Bullajami]

How do you determine "the best"?

[Brady2Moss]

go to covers and you can look at the standings, TB is the "best" moneyline team this year...

[coldhardfacts]

I would like to know if anyone has put this theory to test...

Basically, take any sport, NBA/NFL/MLB/NHL, and find the best moneyline or ATS team and bet them every game...

For example Tampa Rays are the best money line team in MLB...

If I bet them every game for the rest of the season will I profit?

Probably not. The ship has left the dock with them, and you're not going to get sufficient value from here on in to make it worth betting them every game - especially with their starting rotation, and especially at home.

[Brady2Moss]

I think the Celtics or Orlando were the best ATS team in the NBA last season..

[Brady2Moss]

Im curious so I will track this stat once per week... Ill post it in this thread so you guys can track it also

[LT Profits]

No because you are jumping on a team after the fact, and things then revert to the mean eventually.

[Brady2Moss]

July 7

[HedgeHog]

As LT alluded to, it may actually be profitable to fade the best ML performer the rest of the season. Everyone knows that TB is legit now, so their lines will be somewhat inflated the rest of the way.

PS Tampa just lost today as a huge fav.

[Bullajami]

As LT alluded to, it may actually be profitable to fade the best ML performer the rest of the season. Everyone knows that TB is legit now, so their lines will be somewhat inflated the rest of the way.

PS Tampa just lost today as a huge fav.

I agree. TB was the worst team in baseball last year so they have been an underdog for most of this season. Couple that with them being the best team in baseball so far this season and you can see how they made bank. But as HedgeHog says, they are likely to be favored in most of the rest of their games, detracting from their value.

Perhaps a better method would be to find the teams that are now being valued (with great bet pricing) like TB was at the beginning of the season.

[Brady2Moss]

This method may not work with moneylines, but what about O/U and ATS

Look at the celtics, they had one of the best ATS records early in the season and that continued to give them the best ATS record in the NBA.

[MrX]

Im curious so I will track this stat once per week... Ill post it in this thread so you guys can track it also

This is a good example of how valuable it is to gather a good database of historical odds and to learn how to use a database.

In under an hour, you could answer your question with ten years or more of data, instead of taking months to gather a sample so small that it won't really tell you much.

[Brady2Moss]

I would like to find the historical data but I dont know where, anybody have a good reliable site? Provide the link...

[MrX]

I would like to find the historical data but I dont know where, anybody have a good reliable site? Provide the link...

Vegas Insider, Covers, Statfox.

[reno cool]

you and your database X. I like your quotes though, so don't give me any shit.

Tampa Bay may be different than any team in years. I'm curious how they will do against the line and compared to former leaders at this point of season.

Lets make team pick the rest of the year.... how about Colorado???

[reno cool]

I dint know shit made a picture

[louisvillekid]

damn, according to the chart, ATL and Hou. and some "under" machines.

wish it had a breakdown for ov/un's at home and on the road and vs. LH or RH starter.