How do you determine an "edge"

[rake922]

I see people use the word "edge"

But I don't know how they came up with it.

[Ganchrow]

The formula is:

Edge = win_probability × decimal_odds - 1

[rake922]

oh

How does one come up with "win_probability"

[Ganchrow]

How does one come up with "win_probability"

That's where one's handicapping comes in to play and should be the focal point of analysis for an advantage bettor.

Let me pose this question to you: if you see a line at, let's say, +200 how do you decide whether or not you bet it?

[rake922]

Let me pose this question to you: if you see a line at, let's say, +200 how do you decide whether or not you bet it?

I've never bet a dog that high... If I did I would base it on previous situations while I try to predict the future.

[Ganchrow]

I've never bet a dog that high... If I did I would base it on previous situations while I try to predict the future.

OK, well what if it's at -130?

The point I'm trying to make is that in order to make an intelligent decision about whether or not to place a bet, an advantage bettors needs to give consideration to the probability of that bet winning.

[Art Vandeleigh]

Here is an example of not having an edge.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/48899-100.html

The last thing I'm trying to do is "dis" Mr. Data, who I respect greatly. In fact, it's because he is quite knowledgeable in math, and has insights as to how to create models, that makes the above thread kind of scary.

If a poster like him has difficulty finding an "edge" over a long sequence of wagers (while betting full Kelly as well), I have to believe many others do as well. So I for one will be following this thread closely, should it continue.

[NYER5680]

Can you give me your opinion ganchrow

ant too make sure i clearly understand this concept.

i will use the giants VS A 's as an example I handicapped the game and came up with

Giants +146 39.06 win% 2.4600 decimal odds =95.0876 edge
A,s -156 60.94 win% 1.6410 decimal odds =99.00254 edge.

how do you analyze the final number to determine your bet
thanks for your input

[Ganchrow]

i will use the giants VS A 's as an example I handicapped the game and came up with

Giants +146 39.06 win% 2.4600 decimal odds =95.0876 edge
A,s -156 60.94 win% 1.6410 decimal odds =99.00254 edge

Giants Edge = * 39.06% - 1 = -3.91%
A's Edge = * 60.94% - 1 = 0.00%

As you don't have an edge on either wager (to four decimal places) your optimal bet size would be zero.

See http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...on-part-i.html and http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...n-part-ii.html.

[NYER5680]

one last question how did you arrive at -3.91% and 0% what is the math involved with that? Also should you use your own line you handicap or use the opening vegas line? thanks for your help.

[Ganchrow]

one last question how did you arrive at -3.91% and 0% what is the math involved with that?

The formula is:

Edge = win_probability × decimal_odds - 1

Also should you use your own line you handicap or use the opening vegas line?

For the decimal odds in the above equation you should use the line at which you're considering betting.

For win probability you should use the figures from your own handicapping.

[NYER5680]

thanks i understand now that was alot of help.