Warning: Trying to access array offset on null in phar://.../vb/vb.phar/bbcode/url.php on line 2 Notice: str_replace(): Passing null to parameter #3 ($subject) of type array|string is deprecated in phar://.../vb/vb.phar/string.php on line 3 Warning: Trying to access array offset on null in phar://.../vb/vb.phar/bbcode/url.php on line 2 Notice: str_replace(): Passing null to parameter #3 ($subject) of type array|string is deprecated in phar://.../vb/vb.phar/string.php on line 3 Warning: Trying to access array offset on null in phar://.../vb/vb.phar/bbcode/url.php on line 2 Notice: str_replace(): Passing null to parameter #3 ($subject) of type array|string is deprecated in phar://.../vb/vb.phar/string.php on line 3 Analysis of First Year Coaches ATS. - Sportsbook Review Forum

Analysis of First Year Coaches ATS.

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  • BoiseAndTheOver
    SBR Rookie
    • 06-13-11
    • 26

    #1
    Analysis of First Year Coaches ATS.
    Really solid article.



    Breaks down the ATS numbers of first year coaches by month, year, conference, AQ/Non-AQ. Great stuff. Good read. You don't want to be on the wrong side of their research.

    -- Disclaimer: I have a subscription to the site, but this article is free --
  • MonkeyF0cker
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 06-12-07
    • 12144

    #2
    Kind of a silly article. There's a reason why they went back to 2002.

    2 games under breakeven @ -110 the last 5 seasons.

    Presentation data mining FTW.
    Last edited by MonkeyF0cker; 07-21-11, 04:54 PM.
    Comment
    • Peregrine Stoop
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-23-09
      • 869

      #3
      what is the reasoning for 2002 cut-off? You can find coaching changes and databases for prior to that.

      why would the market not adjust for this? It's not like it's a secret.
      Comment
      • evo34
        SBR MVP
        • 11-09-08
        • 1032

        #4
        No directly useful results, but I like the idea of characterizing CFB coach performance. I hope they follow up on it.
        Comment
        • That Foreign Guy
          SBR Sharp
          • 07-18-10
          • 432

          #5
          One season does not a trend make (they claim going 48, 49, 52, 35 ATS is a clear downward trend and it may go lower this year).
          Comment
          • BoiseAndTheOver
            SBR Rookie
            • 06-13-11
            • 26

            #6
            Originally posted by That Foreign Guy
            One season does not a trend make (they claim going 48, 49, 52, 35 ATS is a clear downward trend and it may go lower this year).
            It kind of is a trend when the performance of a year is comprised of 300+ games right? All of the those games trended down. I think it was just poorly worded.

            As for the year, yeah, I wish they would have gone even further back than 2002. I guess they don't have the data.
            Last edited by BoiseAndTheOver; 07-22-11, 08:54 AM.
            Comment
            • BoiseAndTheOver
              SBR Rookie
              • 06-13-11
              • 26

              #7
              Originally posted by evo34
              No directly useful results, but I like the idea of characterizing CFB coach performance. I hope they follow up on it.

              Yeah. Their whole website is dedicated to it.

              Take a look at their Coach Gambling Profile:



              Really neat stuff.
              Comment
              • MonkeyF0cker
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 06-12-07
                • 12144

                #8
                Originally posted by BoiseAndTheOver
                It kind of is a trend when the performance of a year is comprised of 300+ games right? All of the those games trended down. I think it was just poorly worded.

                As for the year, yeah, I wish they would have gone even further back than 2002. I guess they don't have the data.
                Why no mention of the rising "trend" from 2005-2009?

                I'll tell you why. Because it doesn't fit their article.
                Comment
                • Peregrine Stoop
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 10-23-09
                  • 869

                  #9
                  much better to fade coaches in their last year, IMO
                  Comment
                  • TPowell
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-21-08
                    • 18842

                    #10
                    the August ATS record is encouraging.......not much else tho
                    Comment
                    • BoiseAndTheOver
                      SBR Rookie
                      • 06-13-11
                      • 26

                      #11
                      Part 2 of their analysis is out.



                      Much more 'actionable' data in this one. It breaks down home and away. First part was a broad trend, but it looks like these guys have a few serious tips in this one.
                      Comment
                      • Pokerjoe
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 04-17-09
                        • 704

                        #12
                        From the website:

                        "In Part 2 of our analysis on First Year Coaches, we delve even deeper into their performance against the spread. When we start examining home and away trends, and factoring in opponent records, some pretty amazing statistics and trends start popping out."

                        That's all you need to know that the site's methodology is crap. It's just data mining trash, and I'm surprised Justin7 is letting this shill post here.
                        Comment
                        • suicidekings
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 03-23-09
                          • 9962

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Pokerjoe
                          From the website:

                          "In Part 2 of our analysis on First Year Coaches, we delve even deeper into their performance against the spread. When we start examining home and away trends, and factoring in opponent records, some pretty amazing statistics and trends start popping out."

                          That's all you need to know that the site's methodology is crap. It's just data mining trash, and I'm surprised Justin7 is letting this shill post here.
                          I think it's hilarious. Total failure in his attempt to promote it in the CFB forum last week and then he tries to sell its value to the mathematical modeling crowd, who are the most likely bettors to recognize garbage when they see it... I'm sure J7 will remove it shortly.
                          Comment
                          • That Foreign Guy
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 07-18-10
                            • 432

                            #14
                            I love the way Boise State has managed to use the expert spam technique of unbiased third party recommendation.
                            Comment
                            • Wrecktangle
                              SBR MVP
                              • 03-01-09
                              • 1524

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Peregrine Stoop
                              what is the reasoning for 2002 cut-off? You can find coaching changes and databases for prior to that.

                              why would the market not adjust for this? It's not like it's a secret.
                              Because their data set only goes back to 2002. If they were really interested in this, they'd go back to at least 1993 with the last major rules change.

                              Mostly useless "datamining" crap. Wrong use of the word, but the point holds, IMO.

                              On the other hand, binning coaches in some fashion as to capability has some value.
                              Comment
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