Finding even the smallest edge?

[SparJMU]

A typical American sports bettor needs to win a little more than 52% of the time to break even. It takes a legitimate professional/modeler to win at a higher rate over a long period of time in order to earn legitimate profit. Someone like myself does not have the time, resources, expertise, or intelligence to develop models and become a full time successful handicapper. In reality I have no hope of beating a -110 book over the long run.

But what if I found a book with deep pockets that did not charge juice? What if they offered all straight bets at +100, 2 team parlays at 3:1, 3 team parlays at 8:1, etc (unfortunately all teasers odds are standard). If I can develop a method to consistently find plays with a win rate as modest as 52% to 53%, I can take this book for a lot of money over the course of the upcoming football season.

Is there a simple way for an amateur to find a consistent edge of 2% to 3%? Simple models? Hammering soft lines? Fading huge, public favorites?

Any advice would be appreciated.

[ForgetWallStreet]

Just bet whenever Pinny has a significant lean (-113/102, etc) and you can get that same # at your unicorn shop.

[JustinBieber]

Good luck finding a book which doesn't charge juice.

[SparJMU]

I already found the book and hit it with correlated parlays all year last year, but like I said I don't ave the expertise to handicap straight bets with a calculated edge.

Any ideas beyond hitting soft lines?

[chunk]

Yeah, I know that book. It's called the Golden Goose.....run by leprechauns.

[sapidoc]

I already found the book and hit it with correlated parlays all year last year, but like I said I don't ave the expertise to handicap straight bets with a calculated edge. Any ideas beyond hitting soft lines?

Just take the free $. 10K on pinny at +102, 10K on your book @ +100, I'm assuming you can do this for over/unders, etc. as well... just keep it going all season.....

Rinse, repeat.

Also, please share the book

[statnerds]

No juice and correlated parlays?

Those deep pockets would be dry by now.

[SparJMU]

Thank you ForgetWallStreet and Sapidoc for your ideas. Not sure why everyone else is willing to chime in with jokes, but offer no suggestions. With so many bright minds in this forum I was hoping someone could explain my best approach here.

I bet correlated parlays with this guy last year, and actually managed to lose money. Granted I started the season only betting underdog/under because I only had one book, but as the season progressed I found 2 more options and was betting both sides of the corrleated parlay for the bulk of the season. Post #85 and post #96 summarize the process and how much I lost. Basically last year the first 4 weeks were like free cash for CP's, and once conference play started, they actually lost money. Boise St. was really the dagger that killed me. their 2nd team offense was completely incapable of scoring.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/684297-correlated-parlay.html

So back to the original question relating to this no-juice option I have.......I could certainly arbitrage him all season as Sapidoc is suggesting, but the down side there is if I hit him for 2 or 3 big weeks early he might go back to charging juice, while I only made a small profit on arbitraging. I would rather bleed him out slowly with a calculated edge over the long term.

[SparJMU]

I apologize if I made this seem hypothetical and that is why no one is taking it seriously. I have access to a no-juice book. What is my best approach beyond simply hammering the lines where Pinny is charging heavy juice?

And how far off does the Pinny line need to be before I bet it? For example is Pinny is Pittsburgh -3 (-120), I understand I am betting Pittsburgh +100 with my guy. What is Pittsburgh is -3 (-109), am I still betting? Where doI draw the line?

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Work out the implied probability from the pinny odds. For spreads they're 0.98 payout I think, so if they are -120 , the probability is 0.98/(1+ 100/120) = 53.5%.

For evens, you're getting almost 7% edge there, so a great bet.

For -109, it's only 0.98/(1+ 100/109) = 51.1% , so only 2.2% edge at evens.


EDIT: simplified and corrected a little something.

[donjuan]

You can actually use the HPC for implied probabilities.

[SparJMU]

Thank you very much for the explanation.

[SparJMU]

donjuan can you confirm that I am using the HPC correctly, using this example below?

Pittsburgh -3. Pinny = -120, My Book = +100

I enter the line information in the top section, Spread = 3, Fave Price = -120, then hit calculate. Then I can change the bottom section Fave Price from -120 to +100, and the "Fave Edge" will change to my calculated edge? When I attempt my example, it gives me a 4.35% Fave Edge.

Should I go as far as to use the kelly calculator to determine my bet size based on an edge of 4.35%? When my odds are +100, this would tell me to bet 4.35% of my bankroll, but sometimes when i am betting halftime lines I will have -110 odds and Kelly might come in handy?

[TFC]

Pardon me... What exactly is HPC? Thanks

[donjuan]

You need to enter both sides of the Pinny line, e.g. -120/+110. I'd also use a margin of error or fractional Kelly.

[CHUBNUT]

edges are only opinions, your big edge is someone else's mug bet, there is no edge in reality only mythically and in hindsight. Real edges are only found in stale lines which for the normal bettor does'nt last long, the proverbial +ev is only nonsense. Lazy people on here will tell you they can make money without knowledge of a sport they're only jokers with the comfort of posting on an anonimous forum. The most important thing is not getting hoodwinked by the wasters on here who cannot win but constantly come up with mathematical gibberish to give them some sort of importance.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

edges are only opinions, your big edge is someone else's mug bet, there is no edge in reality only mythically and in hindsight. Real edges are only found in stale lines which for the normal bettor does'nt last long, the proverbial +ev is only nonsense.

You're basing that on the assumption that lines inevitably move towards a "truer position", ie the closing line is always sharper than the opening.

In plenty sports that's not totally true, and in a few not true at all. It's relatively easy to prove this, by the way, not a matter of opinion.


Even when it is actually true, there's plenty of time for sharps to get in before that closing line position is reached.

[sharpcat]

edges are only opinions, your big edge is someone else's mug bet, there is no edge in reality only mythically and in hindsight. Real edges are only found in stale lines which for the normal bettor does'nt last long, the proverbial +ev is only nonsense. Lazy people on here will tell you they can make money without knowledge of a sport they're only jokers with the comfort of posting on an anonimous forum. The most important thing is not getting hoodwinked by the wasters on here who cannot win but constantly come up with mathematical gibberish to give them some sort of importance.

WTF are you talking about?



You make BigdaddyQH sound like Ganchrow.

[Patrick McIrish]

Chub, you still betting for a living?

[Patrick McIrish]

Chub, you still doing this for a living?

[Flight]

1) Ignore chubnut, fail all over

2) Bet soft numbers at full kelly. In your -3 -120 example, a -3 +100 bet is (.545)(100) - (.5)(100) = 54.5 - 50 = 4.5% EV. That does not take into account vig, but you can adjust accordingly (or let us know if you need help with that).

4.5% EV is not much, ie if you are betting $100 units, you're looking at $4.50. But if you can do this repeatedly for large amounts, you'll do great.

In other words, this strategy says to bet the soft side. But as others have stated, you can minimize risk by scalping it out, but I have found it leads to other liquidity issues.

[xyz]

3 team parlays at 8:1

Just bet all 8 legs of the 3 team parlay, then you are guaranteed to make a profit of 12.5%.

[chunk]

WTF are you talking about?



You make BigdaddyQH sound like Ganchrow.

I hope that you're just messing with this guy because if you're not, you are very far from a sharpcat. Every dumb ass or otherwise should read post #16 in this thread and paste it to their favorites. Candor like this doesn't show
up often on this site.

[Peeig]

edges are only opinions, your big edge is someone else's mug bet, there is no edge in reality only mythically and in hindsight. Real edges are only found in stale lines which for the normal bettor does'nt last long, the proverbial +ev is only nonsense. Lazy people on here will tell you they can make money without knowledge of a sport they're only jokers with the comfort of posting on an anonimous forum. The most important thing is not getting hoodwinked by the wasters on here who cannot win but constantly come up with mathematical gibberish to give them some sort of importance.

Player's Talk is down the street

[Formulawiz]

With all due respect, you need to spend some time on developing a good reliable system to make money rather then worry about what the vig is.