Squares vs Sharps- Early or late money My idea on this topic

SBR Lou · 06-06-08, 11:58 PM

I think that's a pretty good post. I do pay attention to how things close but that is just one set of information, most guys talk about watching how things move and blindly playing- I think that's the wrong approach more often than not.

Francis Sollozzo · 06-07-08, 12:02 AM

Top , you have at least one thing correct. the old timers would be at the Stardust book waiting on the free morning donuts

topgame85 · 06-07-08, 12:03 AM

Exactly I just think too many people put too much emphasis on line moves and when money comes in for who, Capp the game pick your play and then keep an eye on it and keep it in the back of your head how cash was coming in maybe if you were on the fence about a play (which if you were you prob shouldnt of played it in the first place if you considered it questionable to begin with) let such things come in to play

AgainstAllOdds · 06-07-08, 12:09 AM

Sharps are always on the early lines because they are the weakest lines
Squares are always during the day
Sharps come right before the start of a game and hammer it because the squares fuked the lines up...

This is just what Ive seen...for others it could be diffrent

LT Profits · 06-07-08, 03:22 AM

While these is no real "right" answer, I am of the belief that more sharps bet EARLY, when the line is weakest. This is not to say that there is no sharp action late also, just that I think more of it goes on early.

BigOrangeTitans · 06-07-08, 03:43 AM

sharps target WEAK lines period.
Any decent capper that bets using edge hammer the lines of games that give them a bigger edge(ie weaker lines) Sometimes it happens on openers(ie finals game 1 Under 195) and sometimes on closing lines(i.e. boston -2.5 finals game

chipski · 06-07-08, 03:59 AM

it would also depend on what sport you are talking about .
because lines in the nba move up , down and around all week long ... and within the hour of the opening tip is not a telltale sign if the line move will come into play . (could be a win by 20 just like it could be a win by 1 at the buzzer , how do they know ? are they angels or demons or people from other planets ? )

in mlb how do you know if the line moving is a trick or just plain bs ? yanks going up to -240 last night and losing 2 - 1 , funny . what occurs on the court and on the field happens on the field not in the oddmakers offices . if the fix is on like in nba then the line moves can be very significant . like the lakers hitting the 3 in game 5 beating the spurs by 5 .... but how often does that happen . where the line is good both ways within 1 half pt or 1 pt . maybe 8% (maybe 4%) of the time on sides for the whole nba season maybe , and that # seems high . it does happen more with the totals in nba though .

mlb ? if you owned a sportsbook or were on the books linesmaker team would you try and make it obvious what the right play was by changing the lines and the like or would you be great and be CRAFY ? lmao
i would be crafty more so than obvious , make the most $ possible knowing what you know and what i know , linemakers at all books always have the advantage in this game . can fool you and have you thinking one way when really you have no clue why i moved the line like i did at X time and back this way at X time ..

chipski · 06-07-08, 04:31 AM

first off you would have to really define who these so called sharps are .

the subject is hard to define to say the least . someone can just bet 15 straight favs and win every time . everyone that knows that person would say he or she is a sharp if this person did this many times throughout their life . if he bet 20 dogs in a row and went 17 - 3 he would qualify as a sharp .

the bottom line is if someone is right or not . the reason it is so hard to distinguish the theory of sharp vs square is because everyone is right just like they will be wrong . it all depends on what day it is . and more importantly did the breaks go his way that calendar day .
while someone may think they made a play that would qualify them as a sharp or a group of plays in whatever timespan you want to tag it with >> all that matters is if he is right or wrong and there are no labels we can attach to either , is luck alot of times if we are right or wrong (along with many other things uncappable that occur in the 2- 3 hour game)

if he is right or wrong is not decided before we see the final score , is simple yet is the key to really understanding there really is no such thing as sharp/square as a whole .

someone considered a sharp in the month of july can be considered a square in august . there is no such thing . because 20% are on a game while 80% are on the other side some would attach the 20% as the sharp side . this is bs . just because the 20% happened to win that said game is no true indicator of anything but 1 game . if the 80% side was right we say ooh it was a good try for the 20% , what a great try the 20% sharp side was on ... thats absurd really , really really now !

we tend to remember the games the 20% sharps were on that win more so than the 60% - 80% games that the majority win everyday 24/7 365 .

sharp vs square , surely any true competitor would never call himself a square or strive to be a square . this is something someone has control over . is not like cancer i would think . lmfao

jjgold · 06-07-08, 07:18 AM

In football betting an early number is really not sharp because things can happen during the week with injuries. Actually in todays game with so many injuries and teams playing games with injury reports it is better to bet late. We always have the assumption that smart money bets late because they do not want to alter the lines that much.

Late money is usually heavy money too

chipski · 06-07-08, 04:29 PM

nfl line movement / key who is in and who is out

Originally posted by jjgold

In football betting an early number is really not sharp because things can happen during the week with injuries. Actually in todays game with so many injuries and teams playing games with injury reports it is better to bet late. We always have the assumption that smart money bets late because they do not want to alter the lines that much.

Late money is usually heavy money too

i agree with you in many situations , very nice ...

though i would say sometimes we can pounce on the early line anticipating who will be in or out and anticipating that we need to take the -7 early because we know it will move to -7.5 , -8 .. or take the minus 2.5 because we know it will move to -3 , -3.5 ... the -9.5 to -10 ,-10.5 etc ..

if we want to take the dog then we can wait to be safe and try and get the +3.5 ... etc +10 , endless scenarios really with this .

Bill Dozer · 06-07-08, 08:23 PM

Lots of good observations. Chipski makes a good point that there are different sharps. My take on that…

There are really two groups lumped together that the books refer to as "sharp." There are the guys that have their own educated opinions and the guys that play the market and simply know when there is a good buy that gives them some equity.

The second type of sharp player hits after the line starts getting bet into shape. He may buy or sell but he's betting for the numbers. Pinnacle had all of these guys and was responsible for creating many of them (which is why not all BMs were Pinny fans). A majority of the time this player's action comes at closing time when there is a lot of movement in the mature market. He doesn't cap to find an off opener. Most books (with exception to Pinnacle, CRIS, the exchanges, and depending on the league, TheGreek) are referring to these players when using non-recreational/sharp references. These guys are often motivated by advantageous promos, parlay odds and bonuses and are sometime vilified for taking the free money and ignoring the book's recreational-only label. They don't offer anything to the house like a true "sharp" can. They help the market to be less opinionated.

The guys that have their own opinion love openers. That's when the line is the weakest and they are most likely to find a play they like. They may have inside info, or just capped it differently. They may also hold off and wait for a play to move into their price range and when it does, bet it repeatedly wherever they can until it moves outside of what they feel is a +money play. These players are wanted by the books that take all comers and may even be offered first dibs on the opener as a tradeoff for a sharper public opener. That's why a book "where the line originates" can be worth more than reduced juice or bonuses to a real bettor and why recreational books will wait as long as their customers will let them to put the line up.

JJ makes a good point about today's football. There is such high volume and interest that the line for next Sunday's game is somewhat formed and discussed before the previous game has ended. I haven't watch football openers in a while so maybe our sharp posters can add more...

Wheell · 06-07-08, 11:49 PM

Bill makes some good points. More than anything a sharp can be defined by line movement. If someone is consistently getting the best of it they are sharp. If someone is betting on post it is difficult to judge them on line movement but you can still get a pretty quick feel if they know what they are doing of if they are a clown. It can take some time for the money to shake out but for the most part one can tell who the sharps are.

I should note someone can be sharp in one sport and be a clown in another.

chipski · 06-08-08, 01:38 AM

thanks for all the feedback

so if we play this sharp/square idea out can anyone tell me what the sharps are on in game 2 of the nba finals ?
or does this game not fit the category ?

line moved to lakers -1 as the favs now after opening the opposite so does that mean ... ?
some sharps are on lakers for big money so now vegas has to try and get more $ on boston ?
or the multidudes/multitudes are on lakers so they moved the line to get more multidudes on boston at +1 ?

thanks in advance

Bill Dozer · 06-08-08, 10:31 AM

Sometimes what we are calling true sharps (opinion advantage cappers) are on different sides. If Justin7 were to bet the line it would likely move one way and then if Billy Walters bet it, it may move back. Sharp action moves the line even when the money is on the other side. The lower the volume the sport, the more this happens.

While there is no way to look at the finals and say for sure sharps are on this or that you can tell what is NOT the sharp play. Assuming there isn't any new info about the game, the time has passed to bet the Lakers. Sharps had them when they peaked. If an injury comes in or Kobe announces Gasol is giving him the silent treatment, its's a new ball game. A lot of times players will talk about playing team A or B right before game time but only the other team has a line near where it has peaked. The books love a player who bets Lakers when they are -3 even though they were +2 earlier in the day. Wheell sums it up, it's about getting the best line for your play.

chipski · 06-08-08, 01:00 PM

thanks Bill , nice feedback .

SexyMit · 06-08-08, 01:05 PM

I have been watching lines and that is how I play. I have noticed and been keeping track of it, that when one team is favored and then the other team ends up favored before game time, stick with the team that was 1st favored. It has worked wonders for me.

WORKS EVERYTIME!!

seaborneq · 06-09-08, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by chipski

first off you would have to really define who these so called sharps are .

the subject is hard to define to say the least . someone can just bet 15 straight favs and win every time . everyone that knows that person would say he or she is a sharp if this person did this many times throughout their life . if he bet 20 dogs in a row and went 17 - 3 he would qualify as a sharp .

the bottom line is if someone is right or not . the reason it is so hard to distinguish the theory of sharp vs square is because everyone is right just like they will be wrong . it all depends on what day it is . and more importantly did the breaks go his way that calendar day .
while someone may think they made a play that would qualify them as a sharp or a group of plays in whatever timespan you want to tag it with >> all that matters is if he is right or wrong and there are no labels we can attach to either , is luck alot of times if we are right or wrong (along with many other things uncappable that occur in the 2- 3 hour game)

if he is right or wrong is not decided before we see the final score , is simple yet is the key to really understanding there really is no such thing as sharp/square as a whole .

someone considered a sharp in the month of july can be considered a square in august . there is no such thing . because 20% are on a game while 80% are on the other side some would attach the 20% as the sharp side . this is bs . just because the 20% happened to win that said game is no true indicator of anything but 1 game . if the 80% side was right we say ooh it was a good try for the 20% , what a great try the 20% sharp side was on ... thats absurd really , really really now !

we tend to remember the games the 20% sharps were on that win more so than the 60% - 80% games that the majority win everyday 24/7 365 .

sharp vs square , surely any true competitor would never call himself a square or strive to be a square . this is something someone has control over . is not like cancer i would think . lmfao

Awesome response. When I understand it fully, I will appreciate it more.

ChuteBoxe · 06-09-08, 02:06 PM

Through the years, I've always tried to gauge a time when true sharps pound the early line (scenario 2 in your explanation) in which they feel there's an advantage. I've never been able to get an honest answer from other people I've asked. Obviously, that's due to the fact there really isn't a factual answer to my question. In your opinion though Bill, are we talking about the overnighters (low limits are a problem, but you should have multiple outs if you are truly sharp), are we talking 10:00AM EST, or are we talking 2:00PM EST? The question is focused on both 7:00 and 10:00 games.

Wheell · 06-09-08, 02:44 PM

As a general rule most people who pound the openers are sharp, if for no other reason than the only people who want to bet overnight are handicappers who put a lot of work in. Most guys want to bet a game that is coming up soon, not one that is the next day.

Furthermore the openers are fairly soft. No matter who is opening they aren't as sharp as the market as a whole. When the market pounds an opener, it was probably wrong.

That isn't to say that the line movement always wins. It simply states that the people who pound the openers generally are positive ev when doing so.

juuso · 06-11-08, 04:01 PM

No matter what sport, early lines in general offers much more +EV.

Late news and scratches becomes unimportant over large number of bets. That stuff will even out and go your way roughly as often as it does against you.

smitch124 · 10-24-08, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by juuso

Late news and scratches becomes unimportant over large number of bets. That stuff will even out and go your way roughly as often as it does against you.

Good Point

donjuan · 10-24-08, 04:46 PM

it would also depend on what sport you are talking about .
because lines in the nba move up , down and around all week long ... and within the hour of the opening tip is not a telltale sign if the line move will come into play . (could be a win by 20 just like it could be a win by 1 at the buzzer , how do they know ? are they angels or demons or people from other planets ? )

in mlb how do you know if the line moving is a trick or just plain bs ? yanks going up to -240 last night and losing 2 - 1 , funny . what occurs on the court and on the field happens on the field not in the oddmakers offices . if the fix is on like in nba then the line moves can be very significant . like the lakers hitting the 3 in game 5 beating the spurs by 5 .... but how often does that happen . where the line is good both ways within 1 half pt or 1 pt . maybe 8% (maybe 4%) of the time on sides for the whole nba season maybe , and that # seems high . it does happen more with the totals in nba though .

mlb ? if you owned a sportsbook or were on the books linesmaker team would you try and make it obvious what the right play was by changing the lines and the like or would you be great and be CRAFY ? lmao
i would be crafty more so than obvious , make the most $ possible knowing what you know and what i know , linemakers at all books always have the advantage in this game . can fool you and have you thinking one way when really you have no clue why i moved the line like i did at X time and back this way at X time ..

Even after translating this post into standard English, it is still garbage. Results oriented FTL!

skrtelfan · 10-28-08, 10:20 PM

I think the easier answer is that sharps bet whenever they think they're maximizing their edge. Squares don't care when they bet (but usually bet the day of the game) and will bet any old line.