Turning a Positive Number Into a Positive for Probability

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Sabrosa
    SBR Rookie
    • 02-28-11
    • 7

    #1
    Turning a Positive Number Into a Positive for Probability
    Lets assume that team A and team B will play a match, and their powers are calculated like this:

    A: 20
    B: 10

    From this; we conclude that A has a winning probability of 66.6%, and B has a winning probability of 33.3%.

    Now let's assume that, using a model powers of team A and B are calculated like this:

    A: 8.36
    B: -7.15

    How can the winning probabilities of team A and team B can be calculated ?
    Please don't tell me to add +8 to both team's powers because it gives ridicilous probabilities. There should be a statistical way to find probability IMO. Does anyone know ?

    Thanks in advance.
  • RickySteve
    Restricted User
    • 01-31-06
    • 3415

    #2
    73.91%
    Comment
    • Sabrosa
      SBR Rookie
      • 02-28-11
      • 7

      #3
      Originally posted by RickySteve
      73.91%
      Joke or real ?
      If it's real, how ?
      Comment
      • bztips
        SBR Sharp
        • 06-03-10
        • 283

        #4
        Hmmm, taking the square root of each number should do the trick... but that will require the use of imaginary numbers. Which should fit nicely with your use of imaginary handicapping.
        Comment
        • Peregrine Stoop
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 10-23-09
          • 869

          #5
          maybe the differences between two rankings (assuming power is linear)
          Comment
          • Justin7
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 07-31-06
            • 8577

            #6
            We need a lot more info your power ranking system to offer any guidance.
            Comment
            • xbalto
              SBR High Roller
              • 10-14-10
              • 106

              #7
              any system that calculates probabilities like in the first part cannot have negative numbers as scores. if the negative scores are real, something is fishy with the probability calculation.
              Comment
              • MonkeyF0cker
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 06-12-07
                • 12144

                #8
                Originally posted by RickySteve
                73.91%
                Hmm. I get 143.2%.
                Comment
                SBR Contests
                Collapse
                Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                Collapse
                Working...