NBA Teasers

[SparJMU]

I am pretty sure I just wasted a few hours of my life trying to find profitable basic strategy teasers in the NBA, and I just wanted to confirm it. Feedback from the brains of this forum is greatly appreciated.

So my database goes back about 5 years, and I tested the four subsets with the highest push rates. I was thinking there might be a subset similar to football where a teaser would become profitable, but I don't think it exists. Here are my results.

HF -5.5 to -9.5
2202 Games. 50% ATS, 66% Teaser

HD +1.5 to +5.5
1384 Games, 49% ATS, 64% Teaser

RF -5.5 to -9.5
705 Games, 53% ATS, 64% Teaser

RD +1.5 to +5.5
2189 Games, 50% ATS, 64% Teaser

So the conslusion I have come to is that there is literally never a time when you should tease in the NBA, Sides or Totals. I know you aren't supposed to use the word "Never" in a situation like this, but based on 6,480 games analyzed, it appears to be applicable.

[That Foreign Guy]

Never say never.

What if it's a way of getting more money down on an off market line?

What if you find teasers that are profitable at 64%?

OK, I know what you mean, I just feel very literal today since I have been talking to programmers all day.

[Justin7]

Also, can you find cheap teasers giving more than 4 points? I think you can find 4.5 in places.

[SparJMU]

Foreign Guy, I think we both know I was referring to basic teaser strategy, but I appreciate the literal interpretation nonetheless.

Justin, are you implying that I should run the same series of tests on a 4.5 line and see if that gets me closer to 73%? Challenge accepted.

[Dark Horse]

nm.

[SparJMU]

All right so I just went back and analyzed the same data set, this time using a 4.5 point teaser. The results were better, but still not good enough to get me at +EV if the teaser is a -110 wager. I am under the impression that I am looking for teaser legs that will hit at 73%, or in a small sample size, teaser legs that will hit at 23% points higher than the ATS results in that sample. I found three very specific subsets that got me to a 22% - 23% differential between a straight bet and a teaser.

Home Teams -9.
203 Games. 50% ATS. 72% Teaser.

Home Teams +3.5
158 Games. 53% ATS. 76% Teaser.

Home Teams +4.5
136 Games. 46% ATS. 69% Teaser.

These were only a few hundred games though, so I am not sure its really reliable. For example, neither Home -8.5 or Home -9.5 was high enough. Neither was Home +3, +4, or +5.

So my conclusion at this point is that the 4.5 point teaser is definitely a better option if you can get it at -110, however it's still not a strong enough.

[wrongturn]

I don't know any of those, but just guessing. Maybe lower total can help?

[d2bets]

All right so I just went back and analyzed the same data set, this time using a 4.5 point teaser. The results were better, but still not good enough to get me at +EV if the teaser is a -110 wager. I am under the impression that I am looking for teaser legs that will hit at 73%, or in a small sample size, teaser legs that will hit at 23% points higher than the ATS results in that sample. I found three very specific subsets that got me to a 22% - 23% differential between a straight bet and a teaser.

Home Teams -9.
203 Games. 50% ATS. 72% Teaser.

Home Teams +3.5
158 Games. 53% ATS. 76% Teaser.

Home Teams +4.5
136 Games. 46% ATS. 69% Teaser.

These were only a few hundred games though, so I am not sure its really reliable. For example, neither Home -8.5 or Home -9.5 was high enough. Neither was Home +3, +4, or +5.

So my conclusion at this point is that the 4.5 point teaser is definitely a better option if you can get it at -110, however it's still not a strong enough.

Bookmaker is 2-team 5-point at -110. How does that do? Need a teased side (let;s say 50% ATS) at better than 72.3% teased. Any subsets work there?

[SparJMU]

Hmmmm, 5 points at -110, guarantee something good pops up. I will run the numbers soon.

[mr.inpak]

nba teasers are the worst you can only adjust them 4 points there is no profitable system

[rfr3sh]

i think i tried looking over all of these spents hours and hours but in the end nothing