Originally posted by LT Profits
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Miami lost and they are not (currently) a small favorite for Game 2. They are dogs, right about the same as Game 1. Like I said, yeah if the Bulls had won a nailbiter, then sure, but the way this game unfolded told us something more about this matchup.Comment -
The key word there is "currently".Originally posted by d2bets
The Bulls closed at -2 in Game 1 at most places, -2.5 at Pinny, they won by 20 and yet only opened -1.5 in Game 2. Heat could be favored by tip.
Not that it matters, the Bulls were the value play before the series, which you and I agreed on. Even if you use Chicago -125 in Game 2 of your projections in post #1, it still comes out to series price of just +128 holding the other games constant. Maybe Heat will be more than -5 at home? Or maybe Pinny was banking on Heat winning one in Chicago when setting series price?Comment -
Maybe, but I think a public premium was built into the series line, which even based on real projected lines should have been more along the lines of -160/+140. Almost regardless what happen in Game 2, I find it hard to believe that Miami is going to be favored even by 6 points. Either way I think it'll be more like 5.Originally posted by LT ProfitsComment -
LT profits what did you think was a fair line for this series? Did you think pinnacle was off at -180/+160~ ?Comment -
Hell yes, I came up with Bulls +125ishOriginally posted by JustinBieberComment -
Same as me, I really don't like betting into Pinnacles markets especially if they have large limits. Why was this so far off? I am a fairly big believer in market effciency and cannot understand why this was.Comment -
Has nothing to do with Pinnacle specifically, all of the books had similar odds. Actually, Pinnacle's line tended to be lower than others. They were hanging either +162 or +166 for a large portion of the time, while others had +170.Originally posted by JustinBieberComment -
Yes but +166 is still +EV allegedly.Comment -
Up to +2 now, basically identical to Game 1. I highly doubt that Miami will become the favorite in this game.Originally posted by LT ProfitsComment -
chicago
chicago wins in seven unless the bulls win in miami and its bulls in 6Comment -
I think 5. Bulls go up 2-0 here next game. Then they steal one of two in Miami and close it out in Game 5 at home. If they don't do it in 5 then they do it in 7. I think 6 is the least likely. Hard to win that closeout game on the road.Originally posted by the-phenomenal-1Comment -
It will all make sense when you see the game 3 line (i still predict 6,5/7) however i may look like a fool if the Bulls look as good in game 2 as they did in game 1 (i believe the Bulls played way over heir heads in game 1).Originally posted by JustinBieberComment -
I would bet a very large sum that you will never see a 7-110 anywhere for any game in this series. I believe 6 is the max, but more likely it will be right around 5, maybe a 5.5.Originally posted by smoke a bowlComment -
Today's line moving to 2.5 makes a case that 7 will be a stretch for game 3.Originally posted by d2bets
i guess the Bulls impressed the hell out of the market in game 1 because normally the Heat would have been +1 ish in game 2 after a game 1 loss as a 2 pt dog. Long story short i made some pretty bad bets pre-series it seems. Oh well, i've outrun worse than this before.
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Bulls may have started the underdogs but they are looking great so far.Comment -
how can we take smoke a bowl serious with that name lol.. seems like a sharp kid.Comment -
Actually went up to 2.5, but that only proves further how wacky this series price was.Originally posted by d2betsComment -
+6+100 in Game 3. Based on this, using the calculator, I figured a no-vig line of Miami -230. So I'm guessing the series line will be like -250/+210. Look right?Comment -
what was dallas originally for a 4-0 sweep?Comment -
I got -/+220 d2bets. Pinnacle slightly differs from this though. I would certainly trust their line over mine.Comment -
Pinny has the adjusted series price at Miami -215/+193. Therefore anybody who bet the Bulls preseries in the +175 range did a ton better than the people who bet the Heat preseries at -180ish. Another words -215 on the Heat after getting the split is a good bit better than laying -180 pre-series before the split. I honestly thought that with the game 1 line being solid 2 that the Heat would be closer to 7 when they played at home justifying my -180 on the Heat preseries. However I think the Bulls gained a ton of stock in game 1 judging by the game 2 line being 2.5 as apposed to 1 or pickem which would normally be the case after a heat game 1 loss. Long story short is i think d2bets had the right idea about betting the bulls preseries as it turns out.
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And it looks like I was right about Heat -5 and ML -220 from Game 3. I shoulda jumped on +6 right away. Shame on me.Comment -
miami and points .500 ?Comment -
at one point bulls were -2 for game 2, and novig ml was ~-121. Game 1 novig was less than -120 ml. Bulls may have been way undervalued in the spread/moneyline market, but Pinnacle series price and individual projected game moneylines weren't too far off.Originally posted by d2betsThat was basically what I thought, but I cannot reconcile that with the apparent predicted series price from Pinnacle. Just doesn't mesh.
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