3-Event Same Game 'Teaser'

[diondublin]

If you thought an NBA game would be close, and believed that therefore there would be late fouls which would create a high-scoring game, could you tease both teams and the over in a 3-event wager, or would this be a related contingency?

[Justin7]

Yes, you could tease this. It is probably -EV.

[diondublin]

Yes, you could tease this. It is probably -EV.

Thanks for the reply. Why do you think it would be -EV?

[ForgetWallStreet]

Thanks for the reply. Why do you think it would be -EV?

Possibility of late game fouling is built into the total for starters.

[Justin7]

Teasing both sides of an NBA game -- those two legs are negatively correlated.

A typical half-point in NBA is worth about 5 cents, roughly half as much as on a side. In most cases, teasing totals is a bad idea.

[chunk]

Don't have to backtest to know this stuff.

[SparJMU]

Teasing both sides of an NBA game -- those two legs are negatively correlated.

A typical half-point in NBA is worth about 5 cents, roughly half as much as on a side. In most cases, teasing totals is a bad idea.

I was under the impression that teasing totals in basketball was always a bad idea. My thought process is that there is no range of numbers where 4 points will change your probability to cover the cost of the teaser. Could you enlighten me?

[Justin7]

I was under the impression that teasing totals in basketball was always a bad idea. My thought process is that there is no range of numbers where 4 points will change your probability to cover the cost of the teaser. Could you enlighten me?

Teasing basketball totals 4 points in a 2-team teaser at -110 (or even +100) is bad in every league I have studied.

There are some sports where teasing a total might make sense... such as a 10-point teaser on a low total in NFL preseason. But even in NFL, most teasing of totals is -EV.

[smoke a bowl]

Teasing both sides of an NBA game -- those two legs are negatively correlated.

A typical half-point in NBA is worth about 5 cents, roughly half as much as on a side. In most cases, teasing totals is a bad idea.

This exactly except change "in most cases" to "all cases".

[Justin7]

This exactly except change "in most cases" to "all cases".

I didn't want to say "all cases", because of the one example I gave. That, and there might be other unusual offerings that offer value.

[smoke a bowl]

I didn't want to say "all cases", because of the one example I gave. That, and there might be other unusual offerings that offer value.

No doubt that you have to be careful when using words like (never,always,cant,all,none,etc) when discussing sports betting. However in basketball NBA or college we can agree 100% I believe that it is never correct to tease a total being that there is no group of #s that is even remotely worth enough to justify the teaser play. Even the extreme example you gave with the 10 pt teasers in the NFLX with low totals I don't think is profitable though I am not 100% certain on that.

[diondublin]

Teasing basketball totals 4 points in a 2-team teaser at -110 (or even +100) is bad in every league I have studied.

There are some sports where teasing a total might make sense... such as a 10-point teaser on a low total in NFL preseason. But even in NFL, most teasing of totals is -EV.

I agree that totals teasing would be a bad play, so is it possible to have an accumulative bet, under the original circumstances mentioned, that combines Team A (say +5 or whatever) with Team B (also +5) with the total not teased; i.e. simply OVER the standard line?

I guess this might pay +270 or something:

1) Could you bet this (and at what price?), and
2) Do you think it has any technical potential for value, NBA or NCAAB?

In other words one is having a 'double' on a close game and the over.

My theory is that this might be correlated due to late fouls.