Sabermetrics in use...

**usernametaken** · 05-09-11, 03:07 PM

have you looked at other sports?

**yak merchant** · 05-09-11, 11:50 PM

Originally posted by Call82

Hey folks,

I am pretty new to this forum but have been working with sabermetrics since the ending of last mlb season to find out if there really is an edge in using sabermetrics to predict baseball games. Before I get too detailed here, I was wondering if there are any users around and I would love to discuss certain things...would be happy to hear about your experiences, to me so far sabermetrics worked best to find undervalued underdogs...especially in the +110 to +130 area where my picks went 24-15 so far...its not a big sample size, I know that...but I would love to hear about your take on sabermetrics...thanks in advance...

I reviewed in depth years ago. It's not the holy grail of betting, but if used correctly it can help determine a few things. Using some of the ERP variants you can build an okay system. About the only thing I still use is Bill James Log5 formula for some match up projections. As a batter hitting .400 against a pitcher with an OBA of .400 isn't going to give up a hit 4 in 10 times to that person. Other than that there are some guys out there doing some good work on Park factors so you don't have to do that yourself.

**Call82** · 05-10-11, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by usernametaken

have you looked at other sports?

I havent looked in other sports so far, have you? I have heard that in basketball it should be helpfull as well...

**Call82** · 05-10-11, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by yak merchant

I reviewed in depth years ago. It's not the holy grail of betting, but if used correctly it can help determine a few things. Using some of the ERP variants you can build an okay system. About the only thing I still use is Bill James Log5 formula for some match up projections. As a batter hitting .400 against a pitcher with an OBA of .400 isn't going to give up a hit 4 in 10 times to that person. Other than that there are some guys out there doing some good work on Park factors so you don't have to do that yourself.

Ok, I see...as I stated above, to me it has been helpfull with small to medium dogs which are undervalued...but its true, in total it might give you some...hmm...maybe 5%-10% extra edge, would you agree? Hard to put into a number, I know...

**yak merchant** · 05-10-11, 02:27 PM

I think it's relative. 5-10% better than what? Dart throwing? And I'm sure you could apply sabermetrics to a wagering model 4 billion different ways. I think the fact that you are taking statistics and using those to build a predictive model is they key factor not necessarily sabermetics. Most sabermetrics formulas are just linear regression applied to years of data, it's definitely a starting point, but trust me if all it took was plugging a few average statistics into a linear weights formula then the line would never vary from it. You'll figure out that half the time when it varies it may be because you are right and the public money is on the other side, and the other half of the time it's because Vegas knows something. If you have a solid starting point using sabermetrics, and you look at line moves and where the money is going, you can actually make a few dollars if you are selective. But a linear regression model using team stats over the average of a season aren't going to get you rich any time soon.

**Call82** · 05-15-11, 11:59 PM

What I was trying to say is that with sabermetrics you are having a better chance of success than without it, I tracked it now since the start of the season (not a huge timeframe, I know) and I have beaten the opening line in 59% of the times with an average "beat" of 7 cents...do you know what I mean? I came up with my line, bet the weak side of the game (as my number said) and could have closed the open bet at Matchbook for an average profit of 7 points...

**tukkk** · 05-16-11, 04:17 AM

Originally posted by Call82

I have beaten the opening line in 59% of the times with an average "beat" of 7 cents...do you know what I mean?

1) Of the 59% the avg is 7 cents
2) Of all the games the avg is 7 cents (megasick?!)

**Call82** · 05-16-11, 11:17 PM

of the 59% it was 7 cent on average, in total it has been 3.2 cents on average...its not alot but over a whole season that sums up...and I am from germany, I can still use matchbook :-)