Spread Probabilities vs Money Bet Percentages

[systemplays]

It appears there is a positive correlation in regards to money lines comparing the opening number (I use Pinnacle) and it's winning probabilty to the % of money bet on that side. For example in tonight's Was/NYM game, Was opened -120 which gives them a winning probabilty of 55% but only 43% of the money bet is on them according to the SBR odds page. I believe,therefore; that Was is undervalued with the public and the money is going to the wrong side- the Mets. The assumption would be to bet the Nats assuming the public is misjudging the game and we always want to be on the books' side in most cases.

2 questions:

1) Is this a valid assumption (especially using the opening as opposed to the available number)?

2) How would you correlate this to pointspread games since the spread/winning probabilty percentages only tell you probability of simply winning the game?

I've followed this forum for a long time and finally decided to sign up. Your discussions and ideas have been quite helpful and extremely interesting.

[uva3021]

Anything that involves fading the public will hit around 50/50

Correlations that you find are probably statistically insignificant and free to fluctuate

[ManBearPig]

I think with enough runs you would find this to be less and less significant and not really a profitable correlation in the long run. Anytime you take the public's opinion into account to determine your wagering you will probably not succeed as much in the long run. At the very least this would be a small portion of your handicapping but I don't pay too much attention except for the line moves that can be caused obviously. Being a situational or trends based player would probably be more profitable than using the public as a metric.

To answer your second question, yes you can correlate ML's to spreads by using a ML conversion chart since those allow you to find the fair value for a given ML for that given sport. There are books that explain how to create your own or you can find them with a quick search. These can be especially useful when you generate your own numbers using PR and other basic statistical methods and comparing those to the actual lines to determine value.

[CHUBNUT]

sports forums are awash with little theories that cuts out the most essential ingredient in successful betting, HARD WORK.

[systemplays]

Thanks Man Bear. I am aware of the conversion charts however these only give you the team's probability of winning straight up after converting either side's spread. What I was hoping is to find a way to relate a winning probability % of covering or not covering the spread itself.

[klids3]

Always wondered the same thing