Hedging bets out through interactive...thoughts please.

**JBC77** · 05-15-08, 08:56 PM

I think some opportunity exists to exploit certain live markets that are highly liquid. Popular events, playoffs and stuff. Not sure how it could be done on MLB, haven't really watched the interactives on that yet. Haven't heard must discussion on this topic. I'm not talking about laying action off once in a while, but actively trading both sides.

**Munson15** · 05-15-08, 10:22 PM

I like the way you're thinking there. Plenty of money on these playoff games to make several moves each way.

**xyz** · 05-16-08, 03:49 AM

I agree with Munson15 that there are opportunities in live betting, especially NBA basketball. I view live betting as option trading with 48 minutes expiration (more for overtime). I think the opportunities arise when other players take bad odds. For example, San Antonio -7.5 in game 6, score is 4-4 with 9:33 left in the first quarter, someone took on New Orleans -118 so that my San Antonio +118 went through.

**Art Vandeleigh** · 05-16-08, 03:59 AM

There's others who can better address this issue mathematicaly than me, but I'd say from a psychological standpoint, the important thing is how you will react when the team you're backing in your initial bet gets down big early.

From my experience I find it's easy to take a quick profit when the team I've backed plays well early in the game, but much harder to trade out with a loss when the team I've backed is down big early in the game. It feels like I've really thrown my money away if I take a 20, 30 or 50 percent loss after just a few minutes, so I used to tend to ride these games out til the bitter end, hoping for the comeback that never materializes, never having a chance to recoup anything when the team I've backed is just totally flat the entire game.

In other words, for me it's easier to get out with a quick, smallish, early profit, but much harder hard to accept a quick early loss. This is definitely a losing equation in the long run.

As for trading continuously during the entire game, that's a different matter.

**JBC77** · 05-16-08, 06:17 AM

I appreciate the feedback guys.

It worked out for me again last night. The Spurs were ahead by about 7 or 8 in the second quarter when I pulled the trigger -117 -7.5. You need large line swings to make this happen. It may only occur during highly liquid events, playoffs, etc. Going to do more research on it. It's pretty amazing watching these markets adjust in real time. If I could bet both sides daily and make a profit I would never bet on one side alone ever again.

Lets hear some more feedback, break this down a bit more......

**DrunkenLullaby** · 05-16-08, 07:52 AM

So you played NO P+300 and SA-7.5-117 and considered yourself hedged?

**JBC77** · 05-16-08, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by DrunkenLullaby

So you played NO P+300 and SA-7.5-117 and considered yourself hedged?

I wanted to lay off my NO +300 ML bet. After the first quarter I felt that the Spurs would cover. Forgive my terminology if you will.

Bottom line: I made a profit and would like to discuss ways to trade both sides of a game on a more frequent basis using standard books, exchanges and interactives. If you have something you would like to add...an example of your own, pointers, tips please share it.

Also looking to hear from posters who make markets on the exchanges. Again, if there is a way to play both sides.....instead of "handicaping" which in my opinion you could call guessing which side will win, I would like to discuss it.

Sorry my definition of hedge didn't suit you.

**cobra_king** · 05-16-08, 11:32 AM

When Pinncacle used to have "Live Betting" on sunday and monday night football, as well as playoff baseball, i use to do this all the time. It truly is amazing the numbers you can receive after even just a half inning of baseball that goes scoreless. However as Art stated above the psychological aspect is something you have to deal with. Clearly you aren't going to be correct in your pre game assesment all the time and dealing with those failures is key. I know there is a poster in here who does this with soccer on BetFair and has been extremely successful in playing the market this way.

**JBC77** · 05-16-08, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by cobra_king

When Pinncacle used to have "Live Betting" on sunday and monday night football, as well as playoff baseball, i use to do this all the time. It truly is amazing the numbers you can receive after even just a half inning of baseball that goes scoreless. However as Art stated above the psychological aspect is something you have to deal with. Clearly you aren't going to be correct in your pre game assesment all the time and dealing with those failures is key. I know there is a poster in here who does this with soccer on BetFair and has been extremely successful in playing the market this way.

Good stuff Cobra. Next time you do it on MLB try to post it in here if you could so we have some examples to go by.

Yeah....Art made a great point about the psychological aspects, it's a constant battle.

**JBC77** · 05-16-08, 04:15 PM

I'm going to try it again tonight. Boston ML +140. Hopefully right out of the gate Boston goes up by by a few points, allowing me to get Cavs -2.5 @ +110, +115 or something like. I'll have to have my eyes f!@#ing glued to the computer screen at 8:05.

**JBC77** · 05-16-08, 07:12 PM

Cavs -2.5 +107. See how it plays out.

**DrunkenLullaby** · 05-16-08, 09:15 PM

Bottom line is that the pre-game moneyline bet will most often be a -EV bet. So, in order for the combo platter to be profitable in the long run, the in-running bet will not only have to have +EV, but even more +EV to compensate for the -EV of the pre-game bet.

....and if you're that good at picking off the in-running stuff, then you're better off doing that exclusively. Good luck.

**Munson15** · 05-16-08, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by JBC77

Cavs -2.5 +107. See how it plays out.

You are playing a Polish middle.

**JBC77** · 05-17-08, 05:53 AM

Originally posted by Munson15

You are playing a Polish middle.

I'm beginning to think you might be right. I mean, it worked out but I'm starting to question the validity of what I'm trying to do here.

Maybe I should have named the thread, "Trying to middle bets through interactives."

On another note, second quarter I saw Cavs +176 -2.5, that would have been a whole lot sweeter than the +107 I picked up. My fear was the Celtics would pull too far ahead and the plus money would disappear along with it.

Drunken, thanks for the EV tips, I appreciate it. I'm thinking about just picking my spots now as opposed to trying to do this all the time. Eventually a team is going to cover and I'll wash out, it's back to the observation booth for now.