ML vs RL idea

[jorge1]

this just an idea...if anyone has tried, i dunno, probably...but please help me:

Lets compare two faves in MLB today:

ATL -131ML 160RL

and

KC -131ML 150RL

Real simplistic idea based on what i see: bet on KC ML and FADE ATL.

why?

by the runline odds (technically) there is less a chance ATL wins by two runs or more, than KC.

So the books are telling us that the run-margin in the ATL game is lower, so i should fade.

This is the SIMPLISTIC part of this idea..but ive been tracking this further and this is what ive found the last few days...I KNOW I MUST BACKTEST, but im JUST THROWING THIS OUT THERE for some of you to comment and help.

Ive found the following:

when the ML-RL difference is 85 or more, the price moves in the dogs favor 75% of the time, and in the time period ive been tracking it (this season), dogs won 72% of these games.

what do i mean by difference?

example:

last night line opened

NYM -133ML 158RL vs COL +123

so 33+58 = 91

under my hypothesis this calls for a play on the DOG. and the dog moved to close today at +115...so it moved 8 pts in my favor...

anyways, anyone done any work on something like this...there MUST be a correlation between ML/RL because no way RLs are jsut simply different randomly for the same price MLs.

i know the OU has to do with it, but ive found this difference in SAME OUs anyways...

[greva]

You have to figure in the total for the game in order to calculate the RL price..

In low total games the price on the Fav RL is better because less run is scored and therefore a smaller chance of the RL cashing..

[MonkeyF0cker]

Home/away also a factor.

[jgilmartin]

Take a look at these ML to RL charts. He used 2000-2009 MLB data to make them. Note that he is using no-vig lines here (which, it appears he unfortunately doesn't calculate quite right based on his Yankees vs Red Sox example). I wouldn't take them as gospel, but you will find that they are typically very close to what books put up.

http://wizardofodds.com/mlb

[CHUBNUT]

Take a look at these ML to RL charts. He used 2000-2009 MLB data to make them. Note that he is using no-vig lines here (which, it appears he unfortunately doesn't calculate quite right based on his Yankees vs Red Sox example). I wouldn't take them as gospel, but you will find that they are typically very close to what books put up.

http://wizardofodds.com/mlb

gilly,
are you going to get rid of that loser in your avatar. you'll get more respect as a poster

[jgilmartin]

gilly,
are you going to get rid of that loser in your avatar. you'll get more respect as a poster

LOL are you scouse or a City fan?

[jorge1]

jgilmartin, thanks for the link...definetely helps me...

yeah, i know home/away matters, but trust me guys, i been looking at this and there is variation...even if u find a home dog with a certain OU, another home dog with the same OU will probably not have the exact same RL....why?

simple, because odd makers pretty much saying this outcome or that outcome more or less likely to be decided by multiple run margin, instead of 1.

[Yi]

You gotta factor in the Total for the game.

[jorge1]

THANKS YI,

I am aware that total is a big factor...but check this out for example:

home fave KC -131ML 150RL OU8.5

home fave TB -132ML 155RL OU8.5

now, JUST AS AN EXAMPLE, given this variation of 4-5 pts from these two games. YOU COULD ARGUE that the 5 pt difference accounts with TB games being closer, and KC winning slightly more comfortably..right?

well, look at the results...if u ask me, if u use this hypothesis u can see that u wouldve wagered 1x on MINNY, fading TB, and 1x on KC...

MINNY didnt win, but how did they lose? by a walk off homer..so if u ask me, thats one of those uncapable type scenarios, where u still got value for a dog that gave u 10 innings of dominance and at the end it couldve gone either way..and the KC play, well, KC got postponed but was winning by 4 runs at the end of the 7th inning..

so these small RL differences DO say something...what i gotta do is find what the STANDARD is for a HOME FAVE at given TOTALS, and for a ROAD FAVE at given TOTALS...

I found this info for HOME DOGS and ROAD DOGS but i dont want the info for +1.5RL..i want it for the faves...

thanks guys

[MonkeyF0cker]

You're on a wild goose chase, my friend.

[That Foreign Guy]

Why are the only uncappable scenarios those that result in a loss? Nobody ever says "well I picked the over but it only won because of a walk off homer so I should count it as a loss."

[jorge1]

U r right. I generalized. In the end the numbers are the numbers. Wins are wins. Losses are losses. By an inch or by a mile.

What I meant to say is that capping from the perspective that a game will be close and that gives the dog a bigger chance to win is not so out of the question when looking at this data.

I have been following some guidelines on how to gauge fair ml vs rl prices for home and away faves and I've been hitting a pretty good percentage as of late

However I'm wondering if anyone has specific details. Like someone above pointed me to a site which specifies fair lines for home dogs and for road dogs at diff totals. When looking at todays card I noticed 5 games which are pretty far off the mark. About 8 or more points off what the fair value is hypothesized to be.

So there is something there. Has to be. Its not just a random anomaly that the books would have these lines be off just because.

Something else I've noticed in the two weeks I've tracked this is that with the half ass sytem I've kind of put together I have a few dogs and a few faves. And alllllllll te lines move in my favor. About 80 percent of the lines I pick based on the variation from price to price is going my way.

Example.

Todays priced that were off based on the charts provided above are:

Pit by 10 cents
Nym by 10 cents
Chc by 10 cents
Stl by 19 cent
Tex by 7 cents

If u were to take the opposing fave on the rl u would find this morning that the lines have movde in ur favor by this much

Cin 15 cents
Atl 5 cents
Col 10 cents
Lad 5 cents
Nyy 5 cents

This might be a wild goose chase. Or it might just be interpreted wrong. Etc. But I feel something is there. Books don't just throw numbers and differ runlines for nothing. To me these subtle differences can give an edge somehow. I'm just trying to hone in how.

[jorge1]

Foreign guy. Btw. U r right in a way but at the same time consider this bud.

When I cap ia game. Outside of the line moverments or this or that. Just simply call a game. I cap it outside the anomalies. Then u have a margin of error

Meaning if I capped an under 7 on the basis that two teams have no offense and two great pitchers are on the mound in a pitchers field etc I cap it as so because of an entire game's rythm. I expect the game to follow a hitless rythm. Then bottom of the ninth only 3 runs scored and u get a grandslam..what is that? That is something that sucks to lose the money on BUT I'm proud to say I capped it right minos the last minute error. That error is let's say for arguments sake like a 1 percent error or something. I acount that plus or minus because it goes either way. U r right.

My overall pt is that I felt the books by giving the line they did were dictating the game to be real close and I saw an edge there for minny. Was I right? For the most part yes. The game was won by tb by a fluke. Two runs in the 9 and two in the tenth is a fluke. But that is waht percentage error is for.

Bol bud