1st 5 Innings Totals Question

[dynamite140]

Would it be correct for me to assume that Overs hit at a higher rate than unders in 1st 5 innings?


My thoughts is this. Say a total for a game is 8.5. The total for the 1st 5 innings will probably be 4.5 or so. If its a high total like 10, most likely its giong to be a 5.5. If its real low like 6.5 , it would be 3.5 with lot of juice on the under.


To the people that likes an OVER in a baseball game, isn't it a MUCH MUCH BETTER BET to take the OVER for the 1st 5 innings? The thing is rarely do i see a game where it goes 1-1 after 5 innings and thus under for 1st 5 innings and then they score 7+ runs the last 4 innings to push a total of say a 8.5 over. And i think there has been many times where a game has went 3-2 or 4-2 after 5 innings only for it to hit over for 1st 5 innings and then it stayed under for the full game.


I mean, if you like an OVER, isn't taking the 1st 5 innings over a much better bet? If they score less then 4 runs in 5 innings of a total of say 9.5 or 10, chances are really bad that the game will go over. However, even if 2 teams score say 6 runs after 5 innings to hit the OVER for 1st 5 innings, i definitely see the chance of an UNDER hitting and then no more scoring occurs.


I am curious as to what is the record if you take overs for the 1st 5 innings? I feel like if a total is high, like 9.5 and up, taking OVER for the 1st 5 innings is such a better bet than taking it for the full game because i seen many games where they score 6-7 runs after 5 innings but then score only 2 runs or less to finish the game. But if these 2 teams don't even hit 6 runs after 1st 5 innings, the bet just looks really bad because you need some late rally and those things don't come often enough.


Thoughts on this? My thinking is there is much more scoring in the 1st 5 innings and taking an under is really bad for 1st 5 innings.


I know some books have totals where say its -120 for over 4.5 and you can take +100 for over 5 for the 1st 5 innings.


I see so many games where 1st 5 innings it went over, but from 6th inning on, both teams don't score anymore unless there is some late rally.

[MonkeyF0cker]

No.

[That Foreign Guy]

If the 5 innings over is better than the game over because it's a shorter time period, surely the first innings over is even better? I mean if a game is going to go over in 5 innings then teams are going to score early, right?

[ICE-BLOOD]

there may be SOME games where the 1st 5 over is a good play

the 5th inning may have extra run scoring as the starting pitcher tires or the opponent adjusts to the starting pitcher

[Sawyer]

Bullpen can't ruin the game if you pick Under, lol.
So Full Time is better for Over bets..

Today's pens are garbage, lol.

[dynamite140]

Anyone else?

I feel like if you like an OVER, you might as well take over the 1st 5 innings. If you like an under, taking under for the full game is better.

I seen just so many games that say has a total of 8.5. They score 5-6 runs in the 1st 5 innings which would hit over. Then they score 1-2 runs and game goes under. However, taking unders 1st 5 innings seems to be very dangerous. Because one bad inning from a pitcher can make overs easy to hit.

Many games with total of 10 i see where they score 7 runs 1st 5innings. Then they fail to go over in the next 4 innings.

Does anyone have any data on this? I think if you like overs, take it 1st 5. If you like an under, take it full game. I feel like 1st 5 unders is one of the most horrible bets because scoring usually happen more in 1st 5 since its 5 innings as oppose to 4 innings.

[sharpcat]

Anyone else?

I feel like if you like an OVER, you might as well take over the 1st 5 innings. If you like an under, taking under for the full game is better.

I seen just so many games that say has a total of 8.5. They score 5-6 runs in the 1st 5 innings which would hit over. Then they score 1-2 runs and game goes under. However, taking unders 1st 5 innings seems to be very dangerous. Because one bad inning from a pitcher can make overs easy to hit.

Many games with total of 10 i see where they score 7 runs 1st 5innings. Then they fail to go over in the next 4 innings.

Does anyone have any data on this? I think if you like overs, take it 1st 5. If you like an under, take it full game. I feel like 1st 5 unders is one of the most horrible bets because scoring usually happen more in 1st 5 since its 5 innings as oppose to 4 innings.

You are paying no attention to the most important factor, what is the price you are paying??? how do you know which bet is better if you do not consider the price of the wager?

[goucla]

i used to like the under in this situation but it stopped working so who knows

[dynamite140]

You are paying no attention to the most important factor, what is the price you are paying??? how do you know which bet is better if you do not consider the price of the wager?

Sharpcat,

In terms of price, say the total for the full game is 8.5. Say the over is -115 and under is +105. The 1st 5 innings total will most likely be 4.5. However, the juice would be on the over usually and it might be -120. However, the book i use allow you to choose over 5 or under 5. I'm pretty sure other books don't have this option though where you have 2 lines to choose from for the 1st 5 innings total. Anyways, thus taking over 5 would make the wager +105 usually or +110.

That way you aren't laying juice. yes i'm aware i'm still laying juice if you want to look at it from a betting standpoint because all bets have juice. However, if it lands on 5, you tie as oppose to win if you bet OVER 4.5 -120 but at least you don't lose.

[sharpcat]

Sharpcat,

In terms of price, say the total for the full game is 8.5. Say the over is -115 and under is +105. The 1st 5 innings total will most likely be 4.5. However, the juice would be on the over usually and it might be -120. However, the book i use allow you to choose over 5 or under 5. I'm pretty sure other books don't have this option though where you have 2 lines to choose from for the 1st 5 innings total. Anyways, thus taking over 5 would make the wager +105 usually or +110.

That way you aren't laying juice. yes i'm aware i'm still laying juice if you want to look at it from a betting standpoint because all bets have juice. However, if it lands on 5, you tie as oppose to win if you bet OVER 4.5 -120 but at least you don't lose.

How do you know if the juice is on the Over?

What should be the price of O5 in the first inning if the game total is O9.5 (-120)/U9.5 (+109)? O9.5 (-107)/U9.5 (-103)? O9 (-129)/ U9 (+117)?

[dynamite140]

I used juice on the over as an example. If the juice was on the under. Say 8.5 with over +105 and under -115. The first 5 innings line would be 4.5 and the over/under should be -110 both ways approximately don't you agree? They would probably have the alternate 1st 5 innings total as 4 and juice the over 4 to be -125 and under 4 to be +105. Would you agree here?

[dynamite140]

What should be the price of O5 in the first inning if the game total is O9.5 (-120)/U9.5 (+109)? O9.5 (-107)/U9.5 (-103)? O9 (-129)/ U9 (+117)?

I estimate

1. -130
2. -115
3. -105

[Sawyer]

It depends on game. Sometimes, FF is better, sometimes Full Time is better. If both teams have garbage bullpen, then consider FF Under or Full Time Over.

[CHUBNUT]

bookmakers will find endless ways of getting us bettors to stick our necks out. Randomness is on their side and the few tosses of the coin the better, so stick to the 9 innings, get the best price and pray because what chance you have is certainly diminished as you have less innings. Its quite incredible that people think they have a better chance over less innings, once again it proves betting is a perception thing just like a card trick.