I'm looking at opportunities where both the -1RL for the favorite and the dog ML pay +money. For example, tonight the Cleveland Indians were +115 on the ML and the LA Angels were +108 on the -1RL. Is this enough +Money to arb? I think it's called a polish middle? where we win money as long as the Angles do not win by exactly 1 run. If they do, we push the -1RL bet and still lose the dog ML bet. In every other occurence, money is made. How big do the +number have to be to make it a +EV bet? I think it would be best to figure out how often a home favorite wins by exactly 1 run
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Yes, it is exactly a Polish middle (maybe yours is a Polish side because it only ever loses half the bet). I would analyse it as a NO bet on the prop "will the favourite win by exactly 1 run?" for the amount you lose when that happens to win the amount you win if you Dutch the dog ML and Fav-1.
From there, if you know how often the favourite wins by exactly 1 run you know if it's a good bet.
For extra credit look at push rate by total.Comment -
Inspired by this thread, I dove into my trusty MLB database to check out push rates, and potential arbing opportunities. I only looked at -1.5 Run Lines, but unfortunately I found nothing even close to +EV.
Maybe I need to search more books in order to find better lines, or maybe I need to try -1 run lines instead. Does anyone know if there is +EV out there, or if I am wasting my time?Comment -
Nevermind. I spent about an hour running calculations in excel, and I found 1 on today's card. Unfortunately, now that I have zero access to matchbook, and there is basically no liquidity on BetMaker, arbitraging baseball is basically not an option.Comment -
-1 RL's are computed for the bettor on 5dimes. and they are usually the same or very close to what the payout would be for using the -1.5RL and ML conversion.
How do I find out how often the favorite wins by exactly 1 run?Comment -
the home fav wins by exactly 1 run appr. 18%----the road fav wins by exactly 1 run appr. 11% of the time as per "the logical approach"--you can find it if you type in "baseball favs winning by exactly 1 run" on whatever search engine you use. I use dogpileComment -
This thread was of interest to me. That avatar is strangely disconcerting.Comment -
You can find arbitrage opportunities if you shop for the best lines. For example, just 2 days ago Toronto was +107 in Book-A and Seattle was -102 in Book-B. It's a surebet and you're guaranteed to make profit..but of course, it's not much, only %1.2. You win $1.2 for every 100$ you wager. So if your total wager (both sides) is 600, your profit will be only 7.2$.
Personally, I ignore any surebet opportunities if it's below %2. Anything in %2-3 (or more) can be worth of it, if limits are not small. Betjamaica won't allow you to wager more then 300$ on overnight lines.Comment -
This question never gets old.Comment
