This morning Manchester City was a -1 goal favorite (-128) at home against Sunderland. If I made the assumption that City would win this match 67% of the time (they would draw 20% and lose 13%) and of that 67% they would win by more than 1 goal at least half the time (34%). How would I determine mathematically if this was a +EV wager?
-
-
bet $ 128 (just to make it easy)
34% of the time u win 100+ 33% win 0 and rest lose 128.
0.34*100 + (0.33*(-128)) so no it is not +EV based on these numbers.
basically work out the % for every outcome and then the payout or loss for the outcomes then add em all up.
good luckComment -
Your bet wins 34% of the time. Your bet pushes 33% of the time. Your bet loses 33% of the time.
Take out the pushes so 34/67 = 50.7%, 33/67= 49.3%.
50.7% = -103. Laying -128 would be -EVComment -
Thanks subs and Tackleberry, that was very helpful. So based on the math (and my assumptions), had I wagered the -0.75, which I believe was -160, it would be: 0.505*100+(0.33*(-160)), which is still -EV, but better value than the -1 (-128)?Comment