Here's an interesting question.
Let's say several players are competing in a money line contest over 100 games. The rules state that players may either bet to win 1 unit on favorites or risk 1 unit on underdogs (so a player could risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit on a bet at -110, or risk 1.0 unit to win 10 units on a bet at +1,000).
Let's say that Player A is a professional handicapper and is able to pick spreads at -110 with 60% accuracy. This is all he bets in the contest.
All the other contest particpants are recreational and only bet games at odds of +1,000/-1,500, taking the underdog every time. These players absolutely have no skill and simply pay the vig on each bet (assume there's no pricing bias in the the lines).
What are Player A's chances of winning or tying against 50 such recreational opponents? (Assume that there's no overlap between the games picked by the recreational bettors).
Let's say several players are competing in a money line contest over 100 games. The rules state that players may either bet to win 1 unit on favorites or risk 1 unit on underdogs (so a player could risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit on a bet at -110, or risk 1.0 unit to win 10 units on a bet at +1,000).
Let's say that Player A is a professional handicapper and is able to pick spreads at -110 with 60% accuracy. This is all he bets in the contest.
All the other contest particpants are recreational and only bet games at odds of +1,000/-1,500, taking the underdog every time. These players absolutely have no skill and simply pay the vig on each bet (assume there's no pricing bias in the the lines).
What are Player A's chances of winning or tying against 50 such recreational opponents? (Assume that there's no overlap between the games picked by the recreational bettors).