So browsing through Pinny’s NBA lines, I noticed what I thought to be a great opportunity. The line for the series was sitting at SA(-187) and Phoenix(+169). The game 2 line, was sitting at SA(-105), Phoenix(+105). Now, unless Phoenix is seen to be some kind of special threat in game 2 compared to games 3 through 7, this doesn’t seem to add up. If Phoenix is barely a dog on the road, and you extrapolate the rest of the lines based on that, it sure doesn’t seem like they should be paying +169 for the series, and that SA's 1-0 advantage is being overvalued.
After playing with the numbers for a solid hour or so trying to come up with a betting scheme where I’d bet on Phoenix for the series and SA on each game, I was left with nothing, and when I checked the lines again they were more aligned, the series at PHX(+149), SA(-167), the game line at SA(-117), PHX(+107). Anyways, it seems like an area where there is a lot of potential inefficiency, as books seem to treat the two bets almost independently. Although even if there is an inefficiency, I guess it still wouldn’t be a sure thing because you’re taking a risk that as the series goes on the lines for future games change dramatically from what you expect, ruining your projections and leaving you with a bad price.
Anyways, can anyone come up with the best way to take advantage of this type of situation, and what calculations you would make to do so?
My apologies if someone has gone into detail on this type of subject before.
After playing with the numbers for a solid hour or so trying to come up with a betting scheme where I’d bet on Phoenix for the series and SA on each game, I was left with nothing, and when I checked the lines again they were more aligned, the series at PHX(+149), SA(-167), the game line at SA(-117), PHX(+107). Anyways, it seems like an area where there is a lot of potential inefficiency, as books seem to treat the two bets almost independently. Although even if there is an inefficiency, I guess it still wouldn’t be a sure thing because you’re taking a risk that as the series goes on the lines for future games change dramatically from what you expect, ruining your projections and leaving you with a bad price.
Anyways, can anyone come up with the best way to take advantage of this type of situation, and what calculations you would make to do so?
My apologies if someone has gone into detail on this type of subject before.