How do I convert implied probability into +ROI??

[kpoutlaw]

Let's say the accurate probability of winning is 56%, you have odds of 1.85, so I input these stats into the Kelly and it says that ACCORDING TO THE KELLY, YOUR OPTIMAL BET IS ABOUT 4.24% OF YOUR CAPITAL (ASSUMING MY BANKROLL IS $1000), OR $42.

Does that mean my +ROI on this bet is 4.24%??

[u21c3f6]

Let's say the accurate probability of winning is 56%, you have odds of 1.85, so I input these stats into the Kelly and it says that ACCORDING TO THE KELLY, YOUR OPTIMAL BET IS ABOUT 4.24% OF YOUR CAPITAL (ASSUMING MY BANKROLL IS $1000), OR $42.

Does that mean my +ROI on this bet is 4.24%??

No. Your ROI is 3.6%. You can figure it out by calculating 100 $1 bets: 56 wins of .85 (47.60) less 44 losers or a profit of $3.60 on $100. Shortcut is full-Kelly times the win amount or 4.24 * .85 = 3.6.

Joe.

[kpoutlaw]

wallah...thanks a million!