Thinking about this betting system! Need comments

**Kaplan** · 03-02-11, 03:15 AM

I don't like it.

**Mr.MonzZz** · 03-02-11, 03:17 AM

An explanation would help a little?

**subs** · 03-02-11, 06:46 AM

if ur betting normal 20 cent lines @ -110 the chances of winning each bet is 50%.

so for 4 bets its 0.5^4=0.0625 or 6.25% not 3 out of 12 which is 25%

so over 12 weeks u will win 0.75 times not 3 times.

bet A 150 to win 286.36
bet B 286.36 to win 546.69
bet C 546.69 to win 1043.68
Bet D 1043.68 to win 1992.48

1992.48 - 150 (stake) = 1842.48 ( not 2400)

so in the long term u r expected to win 1842.48*0.75= 1381.86
and u expect to lose(150) so 150*11.25 = 1687.5

1381.86 - 1687.5 = 305.36 expected losses every 12 weeks. i prolly screwed u the maths cos its late here and i can't be bothered to check it but u get the picture.

if u can honestly look back at ur record and know u r hitting more than 53% that u need to break even with -110 style pricing then why bother with this weirdness. in what way r u better off than putting 4 leg parlay to win $1381.86?

that is in effect what u r doing...

sorry buddy its not a good idea. every beginner thinks this stuff up. y do u think the world isn't full of progression system millionaires?

good luck

**sharpcircle** · 03-02-11, 07:08 AM

this system seems unbeatable. math sucks

**Mr.MonzZz** · 03-02-11, 08:36 AM

I do not think that you got it right.

4 picks in a MONTH... or 1 play a WEEK if you will.

You aim for odds 2,0

So...

If you start with 100 dollars it would go like this:

100 to win 200

200 to win 400

400 to win 800

800 to win 1600

Profit = 1500 $

I can't figure out how you calculate your numbers.. I didn't mean 12 weeks, but months.
If my start amount is 100 dollars.. I will only lose 100 dollars each month.

Like this:

January - Lost (-100$)
February - Lost (-100$)
Marts - Win (+1500$)
April - Lost (-100$)
May - Win (+1500$)
Juni - Lost (-100$)
Juli - Lost (-100$)
August - Lost (-100$)
Oktober - Lost (-100$)
November - Win (+1500$)
December - Lost (-100$)

If i hit this system 3 month out of 12 I get a profit of 3600$ a year.

**Mr.MonzZz** · 03-02-11, 08:43 AM

Another example:

This month - March

Bet 1: I bet 100 dollars and win 200..
Bet 2: I bet 200 dollars and win 400..
Bet 3: I bet 400 dollars and win 800..
Bet 4: I bet 800 and win 0..

Damn March didn't pay off. I had a great start but lost on my last bet before I cash it.
.. At the end of the day I have only lost 100 dollars, because that's what I risked in the first place!

If I lose I don't start over, I wait till next month!

Of course this isn't a guarentee system.. It takes skills to hit an odds 2 four times in a row. But you only need to hit 1 out of 12 months to make profit

I honestly think I can do more than 3 months a year! But we will see!

**Romanov** · 03-02-11, 09:29 AM

Basically if you bet this bet on through infinity, you would suck yourself dry. Don't do it.

And no, it does not take skill. It takes blind luck. You have just as much of a chance picking lines out of your ass as you do sizing up a side

**WendysRox** · 03-02-11, 10:19 AM

Originally posted by subs

if ur betting normal 20 cent lines @ -110 the chances of winning each bet is 50%.

so for 4 bets its 0.5^4=0.0625 or 6.25% not 3 out of 12 which is 25%

so over 12 weeks u will win 0.75 times not 3 times.

bet A 150 to win 286.36
bet B 286.36 to win 546.69
bet C 546.69 to win 1043.68
Bet D 1043.68 to win 1992.48

1992.48 - 150 (stake) = 1842.48 ( not 2400)

so in the long term u r expected to win 1842.48*0.75= 1381.86
and u expect to lose(150) so 150*11.25 = 1687.5

1381.86 - 1687.5 = 305.36 expected losses every 12 weeks. i prolly screwed u the maths cos its late here and i can't be bothered to check it but u get the picture.

if u can honestly look back at ur record and know u r hitting more than 53% that u need to break even with -110 style pricing then why bother with this weirdness. in what way r u better off than putting 4 leg parlay to win $1381.86?

that is in effect what u r doing...

sorry buddy its not a good idea. every beginner thinks this stuff up. y do u think the world isn't full of progression system millionaires?

good luck

I stopped reading right here. C'mon, man.

**WendysRox** · 03-02-11, 10:25 AM

OP - How about something like this: You only bet plays with and edge of 67% or higher. You bet 10% of your roll on each play. If you average 3 plays per day (you may have 2 on a Monday, 1 on Tuesday, but 6 on a Saturday - so you average 3/day)... anyway, average 3/day and go 67%... that equals up one unit or 9% per day (roughly).. you will double your bankroll every 7 days (roughly). Starting with $500, you'll be at $8000 within a month.... Seems better than trying to win 4 bets in a row... just sayin'

**bztips** · 03-02-11, 10:26 AM

Typical massive fail on all counts.

How many times does this have to be repeated: It doesn't matter what your money management system is if your bets are -EV. Figure out a way to reliably identify +EV bets, THEN worry about how much you're going to bet.

**Peregrine Stoop** · 03-02-11, 10:32 AM

+EV bets are the Kaizer Sose

**SparJMU** · 03-02-11, 11:34 AM

This is a very, very poor idea

**big cheyo** · 03-02-11, 11:44 AM

theres always a chance you never get lucky, i think you should plan to win in the long run

**subs** · 03-02-11, 03:03 PM

dude where do u find dec. odds of 2.0 all the time cos it aint on normal sides and totals. its like 1.92 ish and yea substitute week for month or year or decade doesn't really matter - like every1 here says its really about HOW u pick ur plays - not about in effect parlaying them.

ummmm Wendy r u saying that his chances of winning 2.0 dec odds r more than 50% - cos any1 who "sees picks that he's really confident in" is really just thoughtfully flipping coins. if u can pick 67% winners at -110 or abouts then i'm very happy for u sister, i must be the fool cos i can't.

so kudos to u.

**FourLengthsClear** · 03-02-11, 07:33 PM

Jeeez, where do these people come from?

**Pancho sanza** · 03-02-11, 08:23 PM

How did I miss this one?

**wiffle** · 03-02-11, 08:25 PM

can't lose, go for it

**DogLover** · 03-02-11, 10:47 PM

Posts like this make me wish I owned a sportsbook.

**Salmon Steak** · 03-02-11, 11:52 PM

Please... another ghost trying to mess with people.

**That Foreign Guy** · 03-03-11, 03:23 AM

Originally posted by DogLover

Posts like this make me wish I owned a sportsbook.

This.

**Cookie Monster** · 03-03-11, 06:39 AM

I just do not understand why the guy stops after 4 bets. There are months with 5 weekends, that is your chance to go for the real big bucks!!

BTW, how no one has come with the No "Systems" in the Think Tank please one liner?

**Peregrine Stoop** · 03-03-11, 01:06 PM

I've never heard of this idea. Do you have a newsletter I could subscribe to?

**rkelly110** · 03-04-11, 10:55 AM

NHL is a good place to bet dogs, 2 and over and they hit at a good rate.

Separate account and only losing $100 a month, go for it. No worse than playing the lottery.

GL Keep us posted.