Middling or siding question

[TRone]

If the line is ever there, is it worth betting the dog +5 and taking the fav -4 paying -110 for the game?
Or how about for the 1st half total in CBB, taking the over 70 under 71, also paying -110?
Hardly ever attempt middles, but I think I want to begin by I want to know when it becomes +even. Thanks.

[jds07v]

The best that would happen here is a win/push, since there is no half points involved. In this scenario above, it is never worth doing it, as the best result you could have is a win and a push, you could never actually hit that middle. The above scenario would likely have you losing $10 in juice most of the time.

[slatter]

Well put, jds. TRine, there needs to be a bigger difference in the lines to hit a middle. Over 70 and under 71.5, for example, would give you an opportunity to win both sides if you hit 71.

Google a push rate chart to see how valuable a point is, and if it's worth it to play the middle. In football, -2.5 and +3.5 with a middle of 3 is a lot more valuable than -11.5/+12.5 because the score so rarely ends in a 12 pt differential.

[jds07v]

Generally speaking, the only time I can middle is if I put in at the beginning of the college football season, some books will release the marquee games way early. Like they had games that were going to be played in late september up in August. You place your bet, and then wait until the week of when the new revised line comes out.

There generally isn't enough line movement to do this with, unless you are hitting the openers and watching the lines all day. I think I attempted a total of 5 or 6 middles all of last year.

[TRone]

Thanks for the responses. So if only 1 full pt is the difference, -110 is not worth it you guys are saying. How about 1.5 pts?
For example, I got a local that offers some 'off' numbers. For example for today's Syracuse vs. Villanova game, he has a 1st half total of 61.5. I see 63 at some places. Is it worth it to pay the -110 and try for the 62 for the middle, or the 63 for the win/push?
Also, is there a lot more value to try these middles with halftime bets rather than full games? I'm thinking the totals should be closer to hitting when only one half is played. Am I wrong?

[blackbart]

depends, on what is it worth to you. good way to satisfy rollover for instance. as far as +ev, you could look up the push rates, there are profitable middles out there.

[TRone]

depends, on what is it worth to you. good way to satisfy rollover for instance. as far as +ev, you could look up the push rates, there are profitable middles out there.

I tried looking up push rates, but didn't come up with anything really. Can you point me to a link with more on push rates? Thanks.

[AbeFroman]

Here's a pretty useful thread from this site:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/78-middling.html

Haven't found much just based off of Google searches, either. BOL.

[slatter]

Bah, it won't post correctly. You can PM me if you want me to e-mail you the NFL and college football push charts.

[AbeFroman]

Another good site:

http://www.sportsinsights.com/sports-betting-articles/general/betting-strategies/surebets-and-middle-opportunity-plays.aspx

[TRone]

Thanks for the info all. I guess the push rate chart is more applicable to football. Yeah, I'm gonna try some middles with basketball but I'll definitely choose wisely.

[SparJMU]

TRone, if you are paying -110 for each bet, you are never going to find profitable middle opportunities in basketball. If you are serious about it, betting exchanges and reduced juice books are your only options. Even then, understand the push charts before you dive in.

[TRone]

Hit my first one on my first day! Not a middle, but push/win.
I had 2nd half pacers/wizards over 102 @ -110, and under 103 @ +104. Total was 102!

Pretty lucky hit for the first day. I was risking about $15 for a chance to win $500. So about +3300 to hit one of two numbers. I know I was lucky to hit it but, that play has to be +even, right?

Thanks again for everyone's advice!

[benjy]

Once you have the push percentages the math is fairly easy. Using your example from the Pacers/Wiz

I'll use 4.5% as the push percentage and $110 bets for simplicity.

If the total hits 102 or 103 you win one bet and push the other, netting $100. Any other total and you lose one, win one and have a net loss of $10.

Expected Return = (Probability of 'siding' * $100) + (Probabilitly of not siding) * (-$10)

E[r] = (4.5%+4.5%)*100 + (100% - 4.5% - 4.5%)*(-10)

E[r] = $9.00 - $9.10

E[r] = -$0.10

So using my assumptions your position on the game had a slightly negative EV. Nice hit though.

[TRone]

Once you have the push percentages the math is fairly easy. Using your example from the Pacers/Wiz

I'll use 4.5% as the push percentage and $110 bets for simplicity.

If the total hits 102 or 103 you win one bet and push the other, netting $100. Any other total and you lose one, win one and have a net loss of $10.

Expected Return = (Probability of 'siding' * $100) + (Probabilitly of not siding) * (-$10)

E[r] = (4.5%+4.5%)*100 + (100% - 4.5% - 4.5%)*(-10)

E[r] = $9.00 - $9.10

E[r] = -$0.10

So using my assumptions your position on the game had a slightly negative EV. Nice hit though.

Wow, thanks for the great example. Can you tell me if that -.10 cents is per $100 or per $1 or another unit?

[benjy]

Wow, thanks for the great example. Can you tell me if that -.10 cents is per $100 or per $1 or another unit?

You're welcome.

Your question is deceptively complex. The simplest answer is that the -$0.10 is on the $220 (2 bets of $110).

However, if one doesn't have bankroll issues, and the concomitant opportunity and/or switching costs, value at risk may be the more appropriate measure. In the example one is only putting $10 at risk and this figure might be the better number to use for return on investment.

[TRone]

You're welcome.

Your question is deceptively complex. The simplest answer is that the -$0.10 is on the $220 (2 bets of $110).

However, if one doesn't have bankroll issues, and the concomitant opportunity and/or switching costs, value at risk may be the more appropriate measure. In the example one is only putting $10 at risk and this figure might be the better number to use for return on investment.

I can't seem to find any push charts for basketball. Where did you get the 4.5% push percentage? Thanks again.

[benjy]

The specific values for NBA can be gotten from the half point calculator available in the Think Tank.

For NBA totals they are typically 3% for a full game total. For half totals I use 4.5%. Due to lower totals NCAAB push frequencies are slightly higher.

[jds07v]

I still don't think that this is a true middling opportunity, as it is impossible to win both legs of the bet. You need to either have a 1.5 point difference in the #'s, or a 1 pt difference in 1/2 point lines.

For example, say you took Wisconsin earlier in the day at -3.5 at -105 odds. Right now, you can take Michigan +4.5 at -108 odds.

If Wisconsin wins by 4 exactly, you cash both tickets, netting you $200.

If Wisconsin wins by 3 or less, or 5 or more, you would lose $5 and $8 respectably.

Go find a college basketball push chart, and see if the push probabilities add up to a +EV play

Obviously, a 2 pt difference in the line would make a middle opportunity more likely. Say Wisconsin -3.5 and Michigan +5.5, as a Wisconsin win by 4 or by 5 would get you the middle

[TRone]

I had a great day yesterday with middles (terrible day with my regular bets). I hit 4 out of about 20 chances.

I wanted to get opinions on what they think the push rate would be for 1st half sides. For example, a -4 favorite. For the full game, according to the SBR half point calculator, it is 4.16%. I feel it would be closer to 7% for the first half side to land. What do you guys think?