1st Period Hockey Total Calculation Help

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  • dynamite140
    SBR MVP
    • 07-05-08
    • 4958

    #1
    1st Period Hockey Total Calculation Help
    I noticed at many books that for the 1st period of hockey, you can bet the over/under and almost always its 1.5 goals. Usually its -115 on one side and -105 on the other. Sometimes its -110 both ways or it could be heavily juiced on the under if the total is a 5. I think they might have 2 as well if the total is 6 or 6.5 correct?

    I noticed that bodog allows you to bet the exact number of goals in one period. For example, let say you have these odds for a hockey game where the total is 5.5 and juice on over/under is -105 for both. I'm using the -105 juice from another book such as 5dimes because their juice is less than bodog.

    The odds for 1st period goals are for bodog

    0 Goals +370
    1 Goal +190
    2 Goals +215
    3 or More Goals +240


    I don't know how to calculate these things but these odds came from bodog. But if you liked the Under 1.5 goals for 1st period, it would be better taking under 1.5 for -105 as oppose to betting on 0 goals and 1 goal exactly right? Can someone tell me what odds i would be laying if i took 0 goals for +370 and 1 goal for +190 since this bet is the same as under 1.5 goals for 1st period.

    Lets just make the calculation easy and use $100 as the base amount. If i took under 1.5 goals for 1st period, i would be laying 105 to win 100. But what if i did the separate bets instead where i tried to win 100 as the base amount? I have to assume the odds have to be a lot worst since these came from Bodog. If you ever bet on a 1st period goals, it would be bad mathwise to bet on 2 out of the 4 choices right since the odds are always worst?
  • dynamite140
    SBR MVP
    • 07-05-08
    • 4958

    #2
    Also, would you guys agree that 3 or more goals is probably the best bet for the exact 1st period goals if one was to bet blindly? 0 goals is extremely hard which is why the odds are so high. 1 goal or 2 goals is always the most common exact goals. Buts 3 or more goals seem a lot better to me because you need 3 and you win. They can score 3, 4 , 5 or 6 etc though i almost never seen more than 6 goals in the 1st period.
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    • FourLengthsClear
      SBR MVP
      • 12-29-10
      • 3808

      #3
      Originally posted by dynamite140

      I don't know how to calculate these things but these odds came from bodog. But if you liked the Under 1.5 goals for 1st period, it would be better taking under 1.5 for -105 as oppose to betting on 0 goals and 1 goal exactly right? Can someone tell me what odds i would be laying if i took 0 goals for +370 and 1 goal for +190 since this bet is the same as under 1.5 goals for 1st period.
      -126


      Originally posted by dynamite140
      Lets just make the calculation easy and use $100 as the base amount. If i took under 1.5 goals for 1st period, i would be laying 105 to win 100. But what if i did the separate bets instead where i tried to win 100 as the base amount? I have to assume the odds have to be a lot worst since these came from Bodog. If you ever bet on a 1st period goals, it would be bad mathwise to bet on 2 out of the 4 choices right since the odds are always worst?
      Almost always, yes.
      Comment
      • FourLengthsClear
        SBR MVP
        • 12-29-10
        • 3808

        #4
        Originally posted by dynamite140
        Also, would you guys agree that 3 or more goals is probably the best bet for the exact 1st period goals if one was to bet blindly? 0 goals is extremely hard which is why the odds are so high. 1 goal or 2 goals is always the most common exact goals. Buts 3 or more goals seem a lot better to me because you need 3 and you win. They can score 3, 4 , 5 or 6 etc though i almost never seen more than 6 goals in the 1st period.
        No. There is so much juice in these 4-way lines that they are all (usually) terrible bets.
        I would be genuinely surprised if 0 goals was not the best (least bad) bet just going by statistics.
        Comment
        • RickySteve
          Restricted User
          • 01-31-06
          • 3415

          #5
          You would have to find a freak game where Bodog got lazy to find any value.
          Comment
          • dynamite140
            SBR MVP
            • 07-05-08
            • 4958

            #6
            Hey can you tell me how you came up to -126 for the calculation?
            Comment
            • FourLengthsClear
              SBR MVP
              • 12-29-10
              • 3808

              #7
              Originally posted by dynamite140
              Hey can you tell me how you came up to -126 for the calculation?
              Implied probability of:

              +370 = 100/(370+100) = 21.3%
              +190 = 100/(190+100) = 34.5%

              Total of the two is 55.8%
              Coverted to American style odds is approx. -126
              Comment
              • Bajadave
                SBR Rookie
                • 02-06-11
                • 48

                #8
                Awesome..................That's what I'm missing.......................brains!
                Comment
                • Peregrine Stoop
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 10-23-09
                  • 869

                  #9
                  OP, Bodog charges too much juice on this type of bet... look to other books for the pot o' gold in this market
                  Comment
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